Thursday, September 24, 2020

2020 NoJR Season Revue - Oh, It's Over Already?

That's what she said.

2020 has been a wild, weird, and memorable year for the world, and it was no different for NoJR. We entered our 10th season with a beastly 14 teams and an epic auction draft that was almost longer than the actual season itself. Then COVID shut down everything, we waited for the league and players union to figure out what the heck they were doing, and on July 23rd we finally played ball.

A caption that only makes sense in 2020.

All things considered, I'm shocked the season went as well as it did. When the Marlins had to postpone over a week of games, and then the Cardinals joined in, I thought the season was going to unravel, but teams managed to keep it together enough that fans and fantasy players were able to stay invested.

As for NoJR, we had a lightning quick regular season with just 5 match-ups followed by 3 rounds of playoffs making this a sprint like no other. 

MLB clubs have had significant roster churn such that I probably can't even name half of my favorite team's roster right now (Red Sox); accordingly, we lifted weekly free agent transaction restrictions from 3 to 10, creating a surge of GM activity.

We also expanded the number of playoff teams to 8, meaning over half the league had a shot at the championship.

While the season may have been unique in these many ways, the end result was anything but. For the 3rd year in a row, the Rip City Reavers are champions!

If this guy posts that scene from Serenity one... more... time...

As usual, this season-ending synopsis will review the draft (long, long ago) and the flurry of activity from opening day through our final stanza in what was a weird and unforgettable year.


The Branch Rickey Award

 
Like every year, I assembled the list of draftees, matched them up with their end-of-year Yahoo rankings, and then calculated the average ranking for each team's draftees. It's an inelegant way to do this kind of evaluation, but since I don't get paid for this, it's better than nothing. Here are the results:

Final draft rankings:
  1. Can I Kick It?: 342.57
  2. Hughes Drubbers: 377.61 
  3. AJ's Aces: 426.43
  4. Van Wageneneers: 449.52
  5. Nuckin' Futz: 463.43
  6. Rip City Reavers: 470.43 
  7. Grand Theft Votto: 492.48
  8. Pearson Cup: 512.78
  9. VATECH NATS: 518.35
  10. Gmonie16: 521.04
  11. Houston Aholes: 572.74
  12. Saratoga Oldtimers: 608.43
  13. Syndergaarden Cop: 629.61
  14. Nickel Blitz: 654.35
Our winner this year is Can I Kick It?! He went from worst to first after his 558.52 score in 2019 put him in the draft cellar. Sweet redemption was found with draft bargains like Nelson Cruz (ranked 25 overall), Tim Anderson (31), Mike Yastrzemski (33), and Kole Calhoun (45). Even in a down year, his top keeper Christian Yelich still ranked 47th overall. For pitching, Dylan Bundy (86) and Brandon Woodruff (91) were good values.

The top dog draft of all-time remains Saratoga Oldtimers' 209.7 showing in 2013 (10-team league, so not apples to apples).

The Chaim Bloom Award

If you see this underbite, it's already too late: Mookie Betts is GONE.

On the other side is Nickel Blitz, who had bad luck with Trey Mancini (thoughts and prays to him - colon cancer) and many injured pitchers, such as A.J. Puk, Jake Odorizzi, Brendan McKay, Caleb Smith, Miles Mikolas, and Yonny Chirinos. It didn't help that he was inactive and failed to improve his roster. Next year, hopefully luck swings the other way.

This is actually a new record for worst draft ever. The previous record was held by former GM Lloyd's Christmas, who set a mark of 578 in 2015, however that was in a year with 12 teams. With the roster churn this year at the MLB level, it's also worth noting that the player rankings this year go all the way up to 2,734. Last year, there were only 2,435 players listed in Yahoo despite going a full 162 games.


Revisiting the Draft

While a good draft doesn't guarantee success, it certainly doesn't hurt. Here, we look back in brutal 20-20 hindsight at the 2020 top snags and hilarious gaffes. Please note that these players are NON-keeper selections.

Your 2020 All Bargain Team

Catcher: Christian Vazquez - Grand Theft Votto
$2 - Ranked 361 - 722
- Catcher was a pretty brutal position to review this year with very few quality options. J.T. Realmuto continues to be a beast, but he's a keeper, so I can't count him.
The best of the rest is Vazquez, who followed up a decent breakout in 2019 with a decent batting average (.273), improved BB% (8.8%), and even 4 sneaky SB while hitting in the top 5 spots of the Red Sox batting order.
Honorable mention: Salvador Perez at $8 (Nuckin' Futz)



First Base: Luke Voit - Nickel Blitz
$4 - Ranked 12 - 48
- Voit was buzzy after a strong spring training in 2019, but after hitting 21 HR in 500 PA that year, many decided there was probably minimal upside. Flip the page to 2020, and Voit already has 21 HR in only ~200 PA, leading all of MLB. He appears to have achieved this through a more aggressive approach and swinging earlier in the count as his BB% is way down, but his K% is also down a bit. No one begrudges a decline in walks when they're hitting dingers.
Honorable mention: Jose Abreu at $16 (VATECH NATS)

Second Base: Brandon Lowe - Nuckin' Futz
$4 - Ranked 35 - 140
- Lowe's career trajectory has been one of consistent improvement resulting in an excellent 2020. His plate approach is noticeably improved: his BB% is up (7.6% to 11%) and his K% is way down (34.6% to 26.2%). Meanwhile, he continues to display considerable pop and multiple position eligibility. I put him at 2B for this exercise because he tied for the league lead in HR for second basemen this year.
Honorable mention: Cavan Biggio at $13 (Syndergaarden Cop)

"My name made the list! OMG, look you guys! HAHAAAAHH!"

Shortstop: Dansby Swanson - Pearson Cup
$5 - Ranked 44 - 220
- Did the breakout happen yet? Dansby was a post-hype sleeper in this year's draft, and he rewarded his owners, but not in a real breakout sort of way. For example, his BB% and K% are career worsts, but his BA (and BABIP) are up compared to recent years. His ISO is flat with last year, and his batted ball profile is very similar to last year. So how was he better this year? My conclusion: he wasn't, but he had the benefit of hitting in the highest scoring offense in baseball, which meant higher run and RBI rates than he had in prior years.
Honorable mention: Corey Seager at $15 (Nuckin' Futz)

Third Base: Manny Machado - Saratoga Oldtimers
$27 - Ranked 4 - 108
- Machado underwhelmed in his first season as a Padre after signing his mega-contract, but he has made good this year with a nice bounceback. He currently has a career high BB%, career low K%, career high ISO, and his BA is up to .314 after a career low of .256 last year. He has also smacked 16 taters. Seasons like this one make me miss having him as a keeper!
Honorable mention: Ian Happ at $1 (Pearson Cup)
 
Gotta give it up for the glove, too.

Outfield: Mike Yastrzemski - Can I Kick It?
$1 - Ranked 33 - 33
- Young Yaz displayed some pop last year with 21 HR in ~400 plate appearances as a 28 year-old rookie, but I never thought he would improve much beyond that. He proved many wrong, upping his BB% from 7.8% to 13.3% while simultaneously making incremental improvements to his K%, batting average, and ISO. He looks more and more like a chip off the old block, much to the delight of Can I Kick It?.
Honorable mention: Wil Myers at $3 (Grand Theft Votto)

Outfield: Trent Grisham - Pearson Cup
$1 - Ranked 39 - 39
- Grisham flashed in 2019 with a strong BB% and intriguing mix of power and speed, but his issue was a lowly .231 batting average. Pearson Cup found him in the bargain bin but ultimately dropped him before the season began, allowing Syndergaarden Cop to swoop in and capitalize on his breakout campaign. The average is still not great (.254), but good enough considering a strong BB% (12.3%) and power-speed mix (9 HR, 10 SB). It doesn't hurt that he plays in the loaded Slam Diego lineup.
Honorable mention: Michael Conforto at $15 (Saratoga Oldtimers)

Outfield: Kole Calhoun - Can I Kick It?
$1 - Ranked 45 - 45
- Another great OF grab by Can I Kick It? as Calhoun revitalized his career in the desert. His batting average looks bad at .229, but his .210 BABIP and underlying data indicates an improved hitter: career high BB%, reduced K%, and a career high ISO backed by 15 HR in the shortened season.
Honorable mention: Marcell Ozuna at $16 (VATECH NATS)


Criminal that this is the best .gif I could find of Lamet's slider (and it's from 2019)

Starting Pitchers:
Chris Bassitt - AJ's Aces - $1 - Ranked 152 - 152
Kenta Maeda - Nuckin' Futz - $8 - Ranked 20 - 160
Dinelson Lamet - Rip City Reavers - $14 - Ranked 17 - 238
Trevor Bauer - Syndergaarden Cop - $19 - Ranked 13 - 247
Lance Lynn - Grand Theft Votto - $12 - Ranked 21 - 252
Dylan Bundy - Can I Kick It? - $3 - Ranked 86 - 258
- It was fascinating to see that the four top pitchers that were not keepers were all bought for less than $20. Bauer led the pack with a return to form: 1.80 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and of course plenty of IP (65) and Ks (88; career high 12.18 K/9).
- Dinelson was di revelation this season. He always posted gaudy K/9 rates, but the key was reducing his BB/9 (2.62); a .243 BABIP didn't hurt either.
- I was surprised and impressed by how well Maeda transitioned to pitching for the Twins. His story is somewhat similar to Lamet's - he cut his BB/9 in half (2.99 down to 1.48), and his BABIP is an unsustainably microscopic .206.
- Lynner Lynner chicken dinner. GTV bought into Lynn's breakout last year and was rewarded handsomely, because LL got even better this year (ERA: 3.67 to 2.53; WHIP: 1.22 to 0.96). I expect the BABIP reaper to come for him eventually (.221 this season).
- The fantasy community has been waiting for Bundy to break out for about 5 years now. Is this year's breakout real? (What is real anymore?) I've concluded that it IS real. Aside from the career high K% and career low BB%, his BABIP is in the realm of normal (.272) and his FIP (2.93) is actually even better than his ERA (3.29). Gratifying to see after so many years wallowing in B'more.
- Lastly, Bassitt was the best dollar bin find this year. He's never been that enticing given he averages less than a K per IP, but he's pretty good at inducing groundballs (42.8%). His FIP is more than a run higher than his ERA (3.84 vs. 2.57), but he's outperformed his FIP each of the past 3 years, so just roll with it.

Why can't the Red Sox get players like this guy?
 
Relief Pitchers:
Sergio Romo - Syndergaarden Cop - $1 - Ranked 65 - 65
Tony Watson - AJ's Aces - $1 - Ranked 69 - 69
Drew Pomeranz - Rip City Reavers - $5 - Ranked 40 - 200
- I'll be the first to admit that I had written off Romo since he was 37 and having ups and downs in recent years, but he put together a very useful season: 4 saves, 10 holds, more than a K per IP, a 2.75 ERA, and 0.92 WHIP.
- Mr. Watson has been a holds machine for years, so it was nice to see that continue after a relatively bad 2019 where he had a 4.17 ERA. There's no way he beats a 0.56 ERA and 0.69 WHIP over a full season, but such is 'Rona League baseball.
- Pomeranz basically had a perfect season: 0 earned runs, a WHIP of 0.88, solid K% (13.5%), and a nice mix of saves and holds (4 and 9). The SP eligibility was the cherry on top.


The All-Bust Team

Ohhh, yep, now I can see what I did. To be fair, I was distracted by a samsquanch.
 
We drafted before the virus hit, back in the halcyon days where high fives were done without a second thought. But the draft wasn't all sunshine and roses as our many numerous busts can attest. 
 
Despite the virus, I actually felt like we didn't have quite as many egregious busts as last season.

Catcher: Mitch Garver - VATECH NATS
$14 - Ranked 1116 - 15624
- Garver had a surprise breakout season in 2019 with 31 HR and a sensational .995 OPS, but his value cratered in 2020 with a 44 K%, 2 HR, and a .152 BA. Evidently he was limited to 75 PA and had a groin injury, which I can only imagine is the worst injury possible for a position that squats all the time.
Dishonorable mention: Gary Sanchez at $18 (Houston Aholes)

First Base: Danny Santana - Houston Aholes
$11 - Ranked 1054 - 11594
- There weren't really any major busts at 1B, but streaky Santana certainly qualifies. The super-utility man had elbow surgery and only managed 63 PA, but even when he went to the plate he struck out 38.1% of the time. After a 20-20 campaign in 2019 (28 HR, 21 SB), you can't completely leave him off your radar going forward.
Dishonorable mention: Edwin Encarnacion at $13 (Saratoga Oldtimers)


Second Base: Jose Altuve - Pearson Cup
$28 - Ranked 585 - 16380
- Altuve is the first of three Astros to make the list, and you've got to wonder if there's something different between this year and last. Aside from sign stealing, Altuve had knee issues this year, but he's currently showing a 312-point drop in his OPS. With a poor BA (.215) and only 2 SB, the strengths that Altuve has provided in the past have evaporated. Still just 30 years old, there's a glimmer of hope that he can rebound.
Dishonorable mention: Ozzie Albies at $24 (Gmonie16)

Shortstop: Alex Bregman - Pearson Cup
$35 - Ranked 614 - 21490
- Another Astro - again, I wonder why so many aren't hitting well. Bregman is similar to Altuve in that the power is turned off (4 HR compared to 41 last year) along with a 252-point drop in his OPS. The patient approach is still there (13.7 BB%) and he's still only 26, so I think it's more reasonable to expect a bounceback here than from Altuve.
Dishonorable mention: Dee Gordon at $15 (Van Wageneneers)

Third Base: Eduardo Escobar - VATECH NATS
$22 - Ranked 792 - 17424
- EE had a shockingly good year in 2019, smacking 35 HR with loads of runs and RBI. Despite playing every day this year, the results are drastically different: only 4 HR and 245-point drop in OPS. His exit velocity, BB% and K% are almost exactly the same as 2019, so what gives? His FB% is down nearly 4 points, but aside from that it looks like bad luck: IFFB% is up 4.5 points, and BABIP is a lowly .233. I still believe this guy can provide 20-25 HR next year with improved BA.
Dishonorable mention: Josh Donaldson at $23 (Rip City Reavers)

Need to get this mojo back.

Outfield: Kris Bryant - Nuckin' Futz
$33 - Ranked 993 - 32769
- What the heck happened to this guy? Before this year, he never hit below .272, but right now he's Mendoza-ing it up at .195 with only 2 HR. According to Fangraphs, he's dealt with wrist, elbow, finger, back and oblique issues, but seeing his exit velocity at 228th out of 257 qualifiers is troubling to say the least. He'll be only 29 next year, so one would hope he can return to form.
Dishonorable mention: Andrew Benintendi at $16 (VATECH NATS)

Outfield: Yordan Alvarez -Syndergaarden Cop
$27 - Ranked 1140 - 30780
- Air Yordan was sublime in his rookie season in 2019, absolutely obliterating the baseball with regularity and without mercy. Understandably, he was one of the hottest names entering the draft, but his value quickly plummeted just two games into the year when he partially tore a tendon in his knee. He ultimately ended up having arthroscopic surgery on both knees, which I was surprised to read - perhaps Astros team doctors are doing expanded body maintenance in hopes he'll be in top shape for 2021.
Dishonorable mention: J.D. Martinez at $28 (Nickel Blitz)

Outfield: Giancarlo Stanton - Rip City Reavers
$24 - Ranked 798 - 19152
- Another year, another injury for MLB's hardest hitter. He made this ignominious list last year, too, putting up 3 HR in 2019 and 4 this season due to a long IL stint to heal a bad hammy. He'll be 31 next year, which is not old for a power hitter, but fantasy owners sure are tired of the constant injuries.
Dishonorable mention: Aaron Judge at $27 (Houston Aholes)

When pitchers wear their warmup jackets while running the bases, this doesn't happen.
 
Starting Pitchers:
Noah Syndergaard - Saratoga Oldtimers - $24 - Ranked 2131 - 51144
Chris Sale - Grand Theft Votto - $20 - Ranked 2025 - 40500
Patrick Corbin - Can I Kick It? - $35 - Ranked 795 - 27825
Stephen Strasburg - Saratoga Oldtimers - $25 - Ranked 776 - 19400
Jack Flaherty - Nuckin' Futz - $42 - Ranked 418 - 17556
- I neglected to include opt-outs like David Price, Marcus Stroman, and COVID-19 complications for Eduardo Rodriguez, but keep in mind that draft capital was spent on these guys unfortunately.
- In other cases it was injury that derailed the seasons of some important starters, like Syndergaard (elbow), Sale (also elbow), and Strasburg (carpal tunnel neuritis). Shuck! I just needed "shoulder impingement" and "rotator cuff tendinitis" and I would have had bingo.
- Corbin was a quality start machine last year, but he struggled in 2020 with a nearly 2-point decline to his K%, likely due to throwing too many hittable pitches (.367 BABIP).
- Flaherty was one of the best values in 2019, but in this shortened season he was the victim of very hard hit balls: 33% of batted balls in play against him were line drives.

Upside of rehabbing: more time with your doge.
 
Relief Pitchers:
Kirby Yates - VATECH NATS - $20 - Ranked 702 - 14040
Hansel Robles - Houston Aholes - $13 - Ranked 942 - 12246
A.J. Puk - Nickel Blitz - $5 - Ranked 2315 - 11575
- Yates is missing out on all the fun in Slam Diego as he recovers from surgery to remove bones chips from his throwing elbow. Mmm, chips...
- I had to check and see if Robles even played this year, because I saw and heard nothing about him since the draft. He must have been injured at some point because he was wild (5.52 BB% and 10.43 ERA) over just 14.2 IP.
- Fantasy GMs have been waiting for Puk to get healthy for years, and they'll have to continue waiting.
- Other dishonorable mentions include Sean Doolittle ($16 - Saratoga Oldtimers) and Ken Giles ($13 - Van Wageneneers).


All-Free Agent Team

This is always my favorite exercise: talking about the biggest and most shocking breakouts from the season. These guys were crucial contributors and some will go for mondo bucks in 2021.

"Bang bang bang! What you get for not drafting me."
 
C - Travis d'Arnaud -138
1B - Dominic Smith - 76
2B - Chris Taylor - 77
SS - Dylan Moore - 126
3B - Kyle Seager - 57
OF - Kyle Lewis - 30
OF - Teoscar Hernandez -33
OF - Adam Duvall -79
Util - Jeimer Candelario -106

- There were several nice finds in free agency this year, particularly on the Mariners. Their offensive production overall was a question mark heading into the year, but now we know that Kyle Lewis is their #3 hitter with pop (11 HR), Seager is still useful and hitting cleanup, and Dylan Moore will run wild on you (12 SB and 8 HR).
- As a pure athlete, Teoscar was always intriguing, but his K% has always been >30%. 2020 was no different, but his BABIP was a generous .362 to bring his BA up to .302. His power also bloomed to the tune of 16 HR.
- Travis d'Arnaud finally delivered with an amazing offensive year, hitting .327 with 9 HR, and the Braves had him hitting cleanup in their #1 offense for most of the year. He was the #2 catcher in all of fantasy after Realmuto.
- d'Arnaud's teammate Duvall was pure power further down the order, hitting 16 bombs.
- Elsewhere in the NL East, Dominic Smith has finally been given regular playing time and making the most of it. With a BA of .314, 10 HR, and 42 RBI (8th overall in MLB), his playing time should be secured for 2021.
- Taylor we all know as one of the top utility men in the game - the only uncertainty we had back in March was his playing time.
- Last but not least, Jeimer has been the #3/#4 hitter in Detroit for much of the year and hit >.300 with decent pop and walks, making him a solid backup option for any fantasy roster needing a 1B or 3B.


SP - Corbin Burnes - 26
SP - Zach Plesac - 41
RP - Devin Williams -19
RP - Mike Mayers - 44
P - Jake Diekman - 49
P - Tyler Duffey - 53
P - Marco Gonzales - 61
P - Tony Gonsolin - 62

The amount of pitching value to be found in free agency this year was staggering. Usually it's more difficult to find good arms via FA, but the shorter season likely helped some of these guys over-perform against projections.
- Burnes is #4 among all MLB starters in terms of K/9 and has a 1.77 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.
- Plesac famously screwed up by violating team rules, but you gotta like the way he pitches: 1.78 ERA and 0.78 WHIP! His 0.74 BB/9 is incredible and would lead the league.
- Devin Williams is ridiculous and may be the most dominant reliever in the game. He posted 52 K in 25 IP, good for a historic 18.72 K/9! His ERA is 0.36, and his FIP is still 0.74 - he's the real deal. I strongly encourage you to read this article by Fangraphs about his "unicorn changeup."
- Mayers flew under the radar and was never claimed due to minimal saves (2) and holds (5), but he strikes out a ton with great ERA and WHIP, so he'll be intriguing for 2021.
- Diekman had 31 HLD a year ago, and picked up where he left off, adding 12 in 2020. But his issue in 2019 was an unsightly ERA well over 4 - that went all the way down to 0.47 this season.
- Duffey put together intriguing ratios in 2019 that only intensified in 2020 as he notched 12 HLD with a 1.99 ERA and 0.84 WHIP.
- Marco solidified his status as the ace of the Mariners rotation with a career high K/9 (8.21) and a career low ERA (3.06). He doesn't have the fastest heater in the game, but it is rated the highest in terms of generating outs according to Fangraphs' wFB/C metric.
- Lastly, Tony G. won't wow you with a lot of Ks, but his fastball-splitter combination is causing problems for hitters as they differ by nearly 10 mph. Last year, they differed by 6 mph.


Odds and Ends

Woooo! Oh, careful, please.

  • The only players to serve on this year's championship team and last year's were my keepers (Gleyber, J-Ram).
  • After a record seven trades occurred in 2019, we had zero this year - not surprising given all the roster uncertainty and the shorter timeframe.
  • For the third year in a row, Gmonie16 was the most active in overall transactions with 69. He set a record last year with 106. Pearson Cup and Rip City were not far behind with 65 and 61 transactions respectively.
  • Overall, our league made 385 transactions - not too shabby for 2 months of work. The elevated transaction cap of 10 surely helped. We set a record with 746 transactions in 2019.
  • We spent a total of $321 in FAAB currency, which would actually be the second most for any season. The record was set at $511 last year. The largest FAAB of the season was a beefy $70 offer by Pearson Cup to secure the services of Diego Castillo at the end of the season. There were no competing offers, but better safe than sorry.
    • The record bid remains $127 for Joe Ross, spent by Nuckin' Futz in 2015. He always gets his man.
  • Gmonie16 led the league in win percentage at .700, which would actually be a new record! Given the regular season was only 5 weeks with wildly differing strengths of schedule, I'm going to put an asterisk on this. The full season record for win percentage is .661, set by Run All Night in 2015.
Smell ya later, 2020.
 
Thanks to all the Nephews for playing during this wacky year! I hope to see you all in 2021 for a season that's ~4x as long and with 100% less COVID. Hopefully the new playoff format is fun this October - enjoy.

Past season synopses and champions:
  • 2020 - Rip City Reavers
  • 2019 - Rip City Reavers
  • 2018 - Rip City Reavers
  • 2017 - AJ's Aces
  • 2016 - VATECH NATS
  • 2015 - Rip City Reavers
  • 2014 - Saratoga Oldtimers 
  • 2013 - Rip City Reavers
  • 2012 - Rip City Reavers
  • 2011 - Hughes Drubbers

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