Monday, October 5, 2020

2017 NoJR Season Revue - AJ's Aces Round the Bases

This season summary is 3 years late, but I'll be danged if I have any gaps in cataloguing the illustrious history of the Nephews of Jody Reed fantasy league!

2017 is noteworthy in that it was basically the same season as 2019: it was an Astros vs. Dodgers World Series won by Houston using a sign stealing system. The difference back then is that we didn't know about it, and the city of Houston had suffered damage from back-to-back hurricanes (Harvey and Irma), so people still liked the Astros' story back then.

You know what they say: party today, whistle blow tomorrow.

From a fantasy perspective, 2017 brought with it an expansion from 12 to 14 teams for NoJR, making it a fiercely competitive and active season. One team rose above the fray to win the first championship in the new expanded format, and it was AJ's Aces!

Ready to feel embarrassed? AJ was 1.5 when he won his first chip.

Read on for a season synopsis that looks at the road to the championship, starting with the draft, identifying the top free agents, and a look at how AJ's Aces navigated the playoffs to secure the title.


The Branch Rickey Award


Like every year, I assembled the list of draftees, matched them up with their end-of-year Yahoo rankings, and then calculated the average ranking for each team's draftees. There's surely better math for this kind of evaluation, but I also have other stuff to do with my time. Here are the results:

Final draft rankings:
  1. Gmonie16: 266.96
  2. Saratoga Oldtimers: 297.65 
  3. Hughes Drubbers: 324.48
  4. Sippin on Gin Andrus: 337.61 
  5. AJ's Aces: 341.65
  6. Nickel Blitz: 358.04
  7. St. Louis Browns: 364.83 
  8. Gas House Gorillas: 402.35
  9. Nuckin' Futz: 407.13 
  10. Grand Theft Votto: 422.91
  11. Hot Garbage: 426.61
  12. Rip City Reavers: 431.78
  13. VATECH NATS: 451.52
  14. 9 Year Old Throwdown: 465.65
Our winner this year is Gmonie16! This is the second year in a row that he's won best draft, almost matching his 237.61 mark last season. Luis Severino (ranked 17 overall), Francisco Lindor (37), Jonathan Schoop (38), Kris Bryant (keeper, 41) all provided top-of-the-line production along with very few busts.

The #1 draft of all-time remains Saratoga Oldtimers' 209.7 performance in 2013 (10-team league, so not apples to apples).

The Dave Stewart Award

His trades were hilarious.

At the other side of the ledger is 9 Year Old Throwdown, who had some rough times with selections that were oft injured or ineffective. Examples include Anthony DeSclafani (1600), Chris Tillman (1273), Adrian Gonzalez (1106), Jason Kipnis (962), Marcus Semien (796), and Ian Desmond (723). Desmond in particular was a major disappointment since it was his first season in the thin air of Coors.

This mark is still a ways away from being the worst draft ever. The previous record was held by former GM Lloyd's Christmas, who set a mark of 578 in 2015, however that was in a year with 12 teams, so you might want to inflate that number even further if you're spreading talent across 14 teams. 


Revisiting the Draft

The draft isn't the be-all-end-all, but it can definitely give a team a big advantage without having to rely on snagging breakout stars before the next GM. Or, the draft can set you way back. In this next section, we look back at the glorious grabs and sad selections that shaped the season. Please note that these players are NON-keeper selections.

Your 2017 All Bargain Team

Suspicious...

Catcher: Yadier Molina - 9 Year Old Throwdown
$1 - Ranked 211 - 211
- Consistency, thy name is Yadi. It wasn't his best year as far as batting average (.273), but he increased his power (18 HR) and even added 9 SB during his age 35 season. He was the #3 catcher in all of fantasy, so 9 Year Old Throwdown's draft wasn't all bad!
Honorable mention: Salvador Perez at $6 (Nuckin' Futz)

First Base: Jose Abreu - Sippin on Gin Andrus
 $11 - Ranked 25 - 275
- Also the #3 ranked player in fantasy at his position, Abreu did what he normally does: hit dingers (33) with a good BA (.304). The runs (95) and RBI (102) also poured in. Surprisingly, there were no major bargains below $11 this year.
Honorable mention: Eric Hosmer at $12 (St. Louis Browns)

Second Base: Dee Gordon (now Strange-Gordon) - Nickel Blitz
$16 - Ranked 22 - 352
- Gordon was exclusively a 3-category contributor, but he did it exceptionally well. He would often win NB the steals category (60), while being above average on runs (114) and BA (.308), ultimately finishing as - you guessed it - the #3 overall fantasy 2B. We don't have any players in this Juan Pierre type of mold anymore. Our last best hope was probably Billy Hamilton.
Honorable mention: Jonathan Schoop at $11 (Gmonie16)


Classic Rangers shenanigans.
 
Shortstop: Elvis Andrus - Grand Theft Votto
$4 - Ranked 24 - 96
- While others had suspicious minds, GTV was all shook up about this selection, getting #1 SS production for a relative pittance. The story for Andrus was a little less conversation, a little more power, slugging 20 HR despite never having hit more than 8 in a season. He of course hadn't lost his blue suede shoes, swiping 24 bags to go with a .297 BA. GMs can't help falling in love with a stat line like that.
Honorable mention: none

Third Base: Jose Ramirez - Rip City Reavers
$11 - Ranked 16 - 176
- 2017 was the coming out party for J-Ram, who hit for power (29 HR), average (.318), and quicks (17 SB). Not to be overlooked, his glove was above average too, making him an absolute WAR machine over the coming years. The long-time Reaver is no longer bound to his keeper contract and can finally test the draft market again in 2021.
Honorable mention: Mike Moustakas at $1 (AJ's Aces)
 
Outfield: Domingo Santana - 9 Year Old Throwdown
$1 - Ranked 53 - 53
- We always knew he had prodigious power, but the 'Mingo Masher turned up in a few other categories as he finally got the playing time he hoped for. In particular, he surprised GMs with 15 SB and a respectable BA of .278 to go along with 30 HR and 73 BB. An amazing find for 9YOT towards the end of the draft.
Honorable mention: Ender Inciarte at $1 (AJ's Aces)
 
Never forget: this was the Marlins outfield in 2017.
 
Outfield: Marcell Ozuna - Nickel Blitz
$5 - Ranked 13 - 65
- Ozuna finished his time with the Marlins with a bang, setting a career high in HR (37), BB (64), RBI (124), runs (93), and what was then a career mark in BA (.312) before setting a new personal best in 2020. He since moved on to the Cards and Braves, but he was at his most fun to own in 2017 I imagine.
Honorable mention: Brett Gardner at $1 (St. Louis Browns)

Outfield: Giancarlo Stanton - Hot Garbage
$28 - Ranked 3 - 84
- Also in his last season as a Marlin, Stanton went nutso, clubbing 59 HR, which is noteworthy because this is a non-steroid era (presumably). Every year when GMs draft Stanton, this is exactly the type of season (123 runs, 132 RBI, 85 BB) they're hoping for. Unfortunately this type of dominance and durability rarely happens for Stanton, especially since signing his huge contract with the Yankees.
Honorable mention: J.D. Martinez at $18 (9 Year Old Throwdown)

AHHHHHHHHHH! 2017! I MISS YOU!!!
 
Starting Pitchers:
Luis Severino - Gmonie16 - $2 - Ranked 17 - 34
Ervin Santana - VATECH NATS - $1 - Ranked 47 - 47
Drew Pomeranz - 9 Year Old Throwdown - $1 - Ranked 97 - 97
Robbie Ray - Hot Garbage - $4 - Ranked 31 - 124
Stephen Strasburg - Nuckin' Futz - $24 - Ranked 12 - 288
James PaxtonGrand Theft Votto - $6 - Ranked 59 - 354
- There were a lot of values at SP this season, but none greater than Severino. Finishing as the #6 SP in all of fantasy, he managed a sharp 230 K with a 2.98 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over nearly 200 IP. The only bad part for Gmonie16 was that he dropped him early in the year and never got to truly enjoy the emergence of this Yankee hurler!
- Big Erv has long been a dollar bin lottery ticket, and this year it paid off for VATECH. Though he only had a 7.11 K/9, his consistency in ERA (3.28) and WHIP (1.13), plus 16 wins, had him ahead of such names as Jacob deGrom, Jake Arrieta, and Trevor Bauer.
- Before becoming a top reliever, Pomeranz had a promising career starting to form as a starter. In 2017, he had 17 wins and 174 K to go with decent ERA (3.32) and WHIP (1.35). Ultimately, the move to the pen worked out fine for him.
- Ray is kind of like the successor to Francisco Liriano - a lefty with major K numbers but not a lot of consistency. Consistency managed to erupt for him in 2017: he boasted a 12.11 K/9 with a solid 2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP to finish as the #10 starter in fantasy.
- NF drafting Stras is a seasonal tradition on par with drunk Irishmen in mid-March and pumpkin spice everything in October. His loyalty paid off this season as Stras finished as SP5 for the year, notching 204 K with a pristine 2.52 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He would of course keep him at this price for 2018.
- For years, Paxton's big K upside made him a fantasy tease, but in 2017 he pleased to the tune of a 10.32 K/9, 2.98 ERA, and 1.01 WHIP. He was the 16th best pitcher in 2017 for 6 bucks - not bad.

 
Relief Pitchers:
Chris Devenski - VATECH NATS - $1 - Ranked 74 - 74
Felipe Rivero - Nuckin' Futz - $5 - Ranked 44 - 220
Greg Holland - St. Louis Browns - $3 - Ranked 91 - 273
- He hasn't popped up much in the years since, but in 2017 Devenski was a dollar bin beast. 100 K, 4 SV, 24 HLD, a 2.68 ERA and 0.94 WHIP is good for any reliever, but throw in SP eligibility and you've got a legendary steal.
- Who's Felipe Rivero? I was confused at first, but after a couple seconds of investigating I soon learned that he changed his name to Felipe Vazquez, which many fantasy GMs probably remember. And now he's on trial for sexually assaulting a minor, so there's no point in discussing his stats at this point....
- Holland had a great 2017 in Colorado with 41 SV, but alas this was his last full year of being an effective closer. There is a glimmer of hope that he can bounce back to fantasy relevance, though, as he bounced back pretty well in 2020 (1.91 ERA, 0.95 WHIP).


The All-Bust Team
 
Remember the epic fail of the Fyre Festival? #2017

2017 wasn't all sunshine and roses as there were numerous draft busts forcing recovery strategies from GMs. Below are the worst of the worst from a roller coaster year.

Catcher: Kyle Schwarber - Hot Garbage
$31 - Ranked 494 - 15314
- This was the final year of Catcher eligibility for the Chunkster of Chop. While he delivered on the main category expected of him (30 HR), he had a very low batting average (.211). Though he transitioned to the outfield, he also didn't reach 500 plate appearances. Seven other catchers ended up out-performing him and cost much less.
Dishonorable mention: Jonathan Lucroy at $17 (Grand Theft Votto)

 
First Base: Miguel Cabrera - VATECH NATS
$40 - Ranked 801 - 32040
- This was the beginning of the end for the former top tier slugger. Miggy used to be a model of consistency, but could only muster 16 HR and a .249 BA in a season undone by nagging injuries and old age. I cringe thinking about how Detroit has to pay him $30 million through 2023. Thanks a lot, Dombrowski.
Dishonorable mention: Chris Davis at $24 (Hughes Drubbers)

Second Base: Ben Zobrist - St. Louis Browns
$18 - Ranked 897 - 16146
- Remember the Zorilla? Fresh off his World Series victory with the Cubs, Zobrist was still a prized commodity in 2017. Unfortunately for SLB, Zobrist had less than 500 PA and could only manage 12 HR and less than 60 runs and RBI respectively.
Dishonorable mention: Jason Kipnis at $13 (9 Year Old Throwdown)
 
 
Shortstop: Jonathan Villar - Rip City Reavers
$35 - Ranked 710 - 24850
- Featuring Swiss army knife eligibility and coming off a season with 19 HR, 62 SB(!), and a solid 79 BB and .285 BA, RCR was all-in on Villar. After securing his services, what transpired was a nightmare: BB% down, K% up, and all stat categories were much worse and without the convenient excuse of injury. After an excellent 2019, he remains a fantasy tease.
Dishonorable mention: Addison Russell at $12 (AJ's Aces)

Third Base: Todd Frazier - Saratoga Oldtimers
$19 - Ranked 352 - 6688
- There were remarkably minimal busts at the hot corner with many of them performing well against expectations. One minor exception is Frazier, who hit 27 HR but batted only .213. Since then, he's remained a dollar bin guy or someone you can pick up in free agency for decent production in short spurts.
Dishonorable mention: none

Outfield: Starling Marte - Gas House Gorillas
$47 - Ranked 662 - 31114
- Starling had a sterling reputation for elite speed and solid BA among fantasy GMs, but that reputation was dashed when he got smacked with a 80-game suspension for PEDs. Over 77 games, however, he was pretty decent with 7 HR and 21 SB - similar production on a per game basis to other seasons.
Dishonorable mention: Ryan Braun at $31 (Grand Theft Votto)

This jump looks like a DL stint waiting to happen. (Remember when it was "DL" back then?)

Outfield: Gregory Polanco -Saratoga Oldtimers
$25 - Ranked 944 - 23600
- Another Pirate outfielder makes the list. Back when fantasy GMs still had high hopes for him, bidding got up to $25 in anticipation of a star breakout, but 2017 was not the year - nor were any subsequent years for that matter. After a brutal 2020 in which he hit .153 with a 37.4% K-rate, I imagine the fantasy community has given up hope.
Dishonorable mention: J.D. Martinez at $28 (Nickel Blitz)

Outfield: David Dahl - Rip City Reavers
$16 - Ranked 1373 - 21968
- Dahl has shown glimpses of breaking out, but never for long, making him an infuriating player to own. He dealt with the usual slate of injuries and never set foot on a baseball diamond during an actual MLB game in 2017.
Dishonorable mention: Ian Desmond at $22 (9 Year Old Throwdown)
 
It was fun while it lasted.

Starting Pitchers:
Johnny Cueto - Grand Theft Votto - $25 - Ranked 542 - 13550
Matt Harvey - Hughes Drubbers - $11 - Ranked 1023 - 11253
Vince Velasquez - VATECH NATS - $10 - Ranked 836 - 8360
Julio Teheran - Sippin on Gin Andrus - $19 - Ranked 408 - 7752
Felix Hernandez - Rip City Reavers - $19 - Ranked 370 - 7030
- After a solid first year with the Giants, Cueto's ERA jumped by more than a run and a half (2.79 to 4.52) and he could only last for 147.1 IP.
- Remember Batman? Even back in 2017, that legend was already fading as Harvey had a 6.70 ERA in 92.2 IP in his final year in Queens.
- After posting a tantalizing 10.44 K% in a solid breakout season in 2016, NoJR GMs were hoping to hit on VV as a rising prospect. Unfortunately, he has never managed to throw for many innings as his max effort style has taken a toll on his durability.
- A declining K% and a rising BB% created a recipe for disaster for Teheran. Despite his increasing ERA (3.21 to 4.49), he actually managed to increase his win total in 2017 (11 compared to 7).
- I distinctly remember selecting King Felix this year, thinking that I got a guy who had one last ace season left in him since he was still only 31. Unfortunately, his arm was AARP eligible and he only reached 86.2 IP.
 

Relief Pitchers:
Francisco Rodriguez - Nuckin' Futz - $9 - Ranked 740 - 6660
Seunghwan Oh - Rip City Reavers - $17 - Ranked 317 - 5389
Mark Melancon - Saratoga Oldtimers - $13 - Ranked 405 - 5265
- I find it pretty remarkable that one of the best closers in MLB history was out of the league entirely after 2017 at the age of 35. Frankie is #4 all-time in saves, but could only manage 7 for the Tigers in 2017 due to a ghastly 7.82 ERA. Curious to see whether he can get into the Hall; he also has the single season saves record (62).
- Oh what an amazing season Oh had in two-oh-sixteen. I was sitting dead red in the auction as I wanted to claim Oh's 11.64 K% for myself. Unfortunately, Oh had a bit of a sophomore slump and has been up-and-down since.
- Melancon's BAA from 2013-2017: .223, .195, .207, .204, .301? You can't fault Toga for thinking this investment was justified.


All-Free Agent Team

There was a metric ton of value to be found in free agency in 2017 - so much that this team probably could have contended for the championship on its own. While they weren't household names back then, many of them are now.
 
We should have drafted him based on size alone.
 
C - Mike Zunino - 440
1B - Ryan Zimmerman - 27
2B - Whit Merrifield - 49
SS - Chris Taylor - 77
3B - Travis Shaw - 57
OF - Aaron Judge - 5
OF - Tommy Pham - 35
OF - Cody Bellinger - 45
Util - Scooter Gennett - 65

- It's hardly worth mentioning Zunino and his 25 HR that made him a bottom tier starting quality catcher. But the rest of this lineup is fire.
- All rise! Judge was an absolute monster in 2017, walloping 52 HR to go with 127 BB, a .284 BA, 128 runs, 114 RBI, and even 9 SB.
- Not far behind was future NL MVP Bellinger, who hit 39 HR and 97 RBI in 132 games.
- Rounding out the OF, Pham actually outranked Bellinger in 2017, producing a rock solid 20-20 season with .306 BA and 71 BB in 128 games.
- Our resident Nats fans in NoJR loved Ryan Zimmerman's career-best season at age 32. He hit .303 with 36 HR, 90 runs, and 108 RBI. In 2016, he hit only .218 with 15 HR, so interest was understandably minimal on draft day.
- Merrifield has now become one of the hotter commodities in fantasy thanks to his mix of speed and pop. It all started in 2017 when he hit 19 HR with 34 SB.
- It was tough to see Shaw's 2017 as a Red Sox fan. After leaving Boston, he hit 31 HR with 101 RBI and even 10 SB.
- Some things never change: Chris Taylor was undervalued in 2017, and he made this same list in 2020. When are we gonna learn? His 2017 ranking was higher than Machado, Bregman, and Trea Turner.
- Last but not least, let's not forget the magical 2017 of a dude named Scooter. On June 6 of that year, he made history by going 5 for 5 with 4 HR and 10 RBI against the Cards. He would finish the season with 27 bombs, nearly doubling his previous career high.


SP - Alex Wood - 29
SP - Chase Anderson - 54
RP - Corey Knebel - 43
RP - Matt Albers - 86
P - Chad Green - 64
P - Brad Peacock - 61
P - Charlie Morton - 82
P - Yusmeiro Petit - 99
 
We had a litany of top tier pitching available in free agency: all 8 of this year's selections were ranked in the top 100 of Yahoo fantasy players.
- Sadly, Wood has not been able to replicate the success he had in 2017, but it was amazing seeing how unstoppable he was that year, particularly before the All-Star break. In that first half of the year, he went 10-0 with a 1.67 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 97 K in 80.2 IP.
- Chase turned in a quiet career year in 2017, going 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 133 K for the Brew Crew.
- Anderson's teammate Knebel was a monster from the pen, finishing the season #3 overall in K/9 (14.92; 126 K) with 39 saves, 11 holds, and a 1.78 ERA.
- In his lone season with the Nats, Albers' value was primarily in his ratios, featuring a 1.62 ERA and career best 0.85 WHIP. He tossed in 14 HLD and 7 wins for kicks.
- Peak Chad Green occurred in 2017 when he racked up amazing ratios but with only 9 HLD. He eclipsed 100 K with a 1.83 ERA and 0.74 WHIP.
- 2017 was the year Morton morphed from an innocuous, average starter to a dangerous upper tier fantasy stalwart. How'd he do it? You have to credit Astros player development on this one for helping him unlock more velocity: he had a 93 mph fastball with the Pirates and upped that to 96 mph in Houston. His K/9 went from 6.7 to 10.0.
- Similar to Morton, the Astros helped Peacock transform from a guy who wasn't intimidating at all to a strikeout machine in 2017 (10.89 K/9). It looks like he added sink to his fastball this year.
- Lastly, Petit had been an underrated reliever for many years, often racking up ~100 K and a solid number of HLD to go with consistently solid ratios.


Odds and Ends

  • There was only one player on AJ's Aces final championship roster that also won a championship the prior year, and you would never guess who it is: Matt Belisle.
  • There were 3 trades that occurred in 2017, and Rip City was in the middle of all of them:
    • May 8: Rip City acquires Addison Reed from Saratoga Oldtimers for Archie Bradley.
      It was a breakout year for Bradley, who notched 25 HLD to go with 79 K, a 1.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Meanwhile, Reed had a solid year with 76 K, 19 SV and 15 HLD, but with a slightly worse ERA. Pretty even trade overall.
    • June 26: Rip City acquires Lorenzo Cain from Nickel Blitz for Kendrys Morales and Jason Kipnis.
      Morales had decent pop, producing 28 HR with 85 RBI, but Kipnis missed time and managed only 12 HR and 6 SB over 90 games. Cain was instead a model of consistency, hitting .300 with 15 HR and 26 SB in his final year in KC.
    • July 11: Rip City acquires Freddie Freeman from Hot Garbage for Scooter Gennett, Yonder Alonso, and Seunghwan Oh.
      Freeman was consistent as ever, hitting .307 with 28 HR, but Yonder also broke out with 28 HR - the main difference was Yonder had a .266 BA. Gennett and Oh were added depth value to account for the difference in BA. Based on pure name value alone, though, most would agree RCR won this deal.
  • Saratoga Oldtimers led the league in transactions with 69. At the time, this tied a previous record of 69 transactions set by Rip City in NoJR's first season (2011).
  • Overall, our league made 510 transactions - another record at the time. This shattered our previous high of 400 transactions set in 2016 - not too surprising given the expansion from 12 to 14 teams.
  • We spent a total of $418 in FAAB currency, which was yet another new record at the time. The largest FAAB in 2017 was a $56 offer by 9 Year Old Throwdown for the services of Jonathan Villar. He outbid his dad, VATECH, who offered $10.
    • The record bid remains $127 for Joe Ross, spent by Nuckin' Futz in 2015.
    • 9YOT came into the season with a record high budget of $256 and spent $123 in total.
  • Rip City led the league in win percentage with a .606 mark, but this is not close to the NoJR record: .661, set by Run All Night in 2015. It wouldn't help RCR much as the team ultimately finished 4th.
  • In fact, it was AJ's Aces who knocked out the Reavers with a 5-5 win in the league's semi-final. I'll never forget that the Aces racked up a few walks late on Sunday that tied that category and the match-up overall. The tie meant the winner would be determined based on strength of schedule, and the Aces had the edge after a 9-2 shellacking ALL the way back in Week 1. Every week counts!
The Aces got this man a ring while the Angels can't!

Looking back, it was a memorable year and an awesome championship for AJ! And it's been gratifying to see the league continue for years since.

At long last, we have all the synopses for NoJR's past seasons - here are the ones "to-date":
  • 2017 - AJ's Aces
  • 2016 - VATECH NATS
  • 2015 - Rip City Reavers
  • 2014 - Saratoga Oldtimers 
  • 2013 - Rip City Reavers
  • 2012 - Rip City Reavers
  • 2011 - Hughes Drubbers

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