Tuesday, October 1, 2019

2019 NoJR Season Revue - A Reav-ent to Remember

The 2019 season of NoJR is officially in the books, and our 9th edition was the biggest and baddest yet. Fourteen teams and numerous records set, including total transactions, trades, and home runs.

We also witnessed quite a degree of league parity - you basically had one team firmly atop the standings (St. Hubert), one team firmly in the cellar (Bats R Us), and everyone else fighting for a playoff spot.

In the end, after a long and fiercely competitive season, the defending champion Reavers were able to get hot at the right time and keep the NoJR trophy in Rip City. The Reavers are now 5-time champions, going back-to-back for the second time in franchise history.

Reavers!
Of course, there were many other notable happenings on the winding journey to October, and TDZ's got your season-ending synopsis for all things 2019 NoJR.  As usual, we'll review the draft way back in March, and the key transactions and moments that made this year one for the record books.


The Branch Rickey Award

Baseball innovator and man most likely to be a supporting actor in an Alfred Hitchcock film, Branch Rickey.


Like every year, I assembled the list of draftees, matched them up with their end-of-year Yahoo rankings, and then calculated the average ranking for each team's draftees. It's not the best way to do this kind of evaluation, but since I don't get paid for this, it's the best I'm willing to do. Here are the results:

Final draft rankings:
  1. Rip City Reavers: 347.43
  2. Hughes Drubbers: 359.35
  3. Grand Theft Votto: 366.13
  4. Nuckin' Futz: 381.39
  5. AJ's Aces: 387.52
  6. Gmonie16: 403.61
  7. St. Hubert: 411.13
  8. Nickel Blitz: 420.48  
  9. Van Wageneneers: 439.74
  10. Saratoga Oldtimers: 440.65
  11. Bats R Us: 513.17
  12. VATECH NATS: 517.61
  13. Syndergaarden Cop: 530.52
  14. Can I Kick It?: 558.52
Though it was by no means a landslide, Rip City won best draft for the second year in a row. While there were certainly a few duds, the main thing I noticed is that most of my pitching selections panned out, such as Jack Flaherty, Madison Bumgarner, Tyler Glasnow, Ryan Pressly, and Josh Hader. Ironically, the pitcher that disappointed the most was my keeper, Trevor Bauer.

The top dog draft of all-time remains Saratoga Oldtimers' 209.7 showing in 2013 (10-team league).

Dan Duquette Award

Coach is like "watch the splinters, dude."
On the other side is Can I Kick It?, who had bad luck across the board. His most expensive player, Corey Kluber ($35, ranked 800) got injured in April and never came back. Others, like Khris Davis (739), Corey Knebel (1999), and Willians Astudillo (1140), were all disappointments. Even keepers like Mitch Haniger (1005) and Vlad Guerrero Jr. (662) didn't pan out. Christian Yelich (4) lasted most of the year and was brilliant, but even he fell away at the end. Alright, enough salt in the wound! Next year, hopefully luck swings the other way.

The record for worst draft ever is still held by former GM Lloyd's Christmas, who set an all-time worst mark of 578 in 2015.


Revisiting the Draft

While a good draft doesn't guarantee success, it certainly doesn't hurt. Here, we look back in brutal 20-20 hindsight at the top snags and hilarious gaffes. Please note that these players are NON-keeper selections.

Your 2019 All Bargain Team

Catcher: Yasmani Grandal - Grand Theft Votto
$13 - Ranked 90 - 1170
- Maybe the $13 price tag doesn't seem that low, but Grandal was the only catcher ranked in the top-100 - a rarity in the modern game. He was 3rd at his position in HR, second in runs and RBI, but the real differentiator was his patience at the plate with triple digit walks (109). That's 58 more walks than second place at the position (Robinson Chirinos).
Honorable mention: none

First Base: Josh Bell - Nuckin' Futz
$1 - Ranked 36 - 36
- It was a major breakout for Bell as he achieved dramatic gains in his career highs for HR (37, +11) runs (94, +19), and RBI (116, +26), resulting in a .936 OPS (+.136). The only downside to Bell's year was his pre-to-post All-Star break splits, where he hit much better before the midsummer classic (1.025 OPS) than after (.780). He also missed the last two weeks of the season with a groin issue. Still, for a dollar, he was a tremendous value and outperformed guys with much higher price tags like Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, and Rhys Hoskins.
Honorable mention: Yuli Gurriel at $1 (AJ's Aces), Pete Alonso at $11 (Van Wageneneers)

Oh, it's a beautiful thing. 53 HR for big Pete, a new rookie record.
Second Base: DJ LeMahieu - Van Wageneneers
$2 - Ranked 28 - 56
- With strikeouts increasing every year, players who can hit for average are few and far between. This former batting title champ not only bucks that trend, but he dramatically increased his power output despite leaving Coors Field. DJ had career highs in HR (26), runs (109), RBI (102), and hit .327, making a loaded Yankees lineup even more lethal.
Honorable mention: Jonathan Villar at $17 (Hughes Drubbers)

Shortstop: Marcus Semien - VATECH NATS
$1 - Ranked 16 - 16
- Shockingly, I have this guy rated as the biggest bargain in all of fantasy this year. I never figured him to have that high of a ceiling but he achieved career highs in all categories but steals (of which he still had 10), leading to a major growth in OPS (.892, beating his previous career high of only .735). Can he replicate these numbers next year? At 29 years old, it's at least plausible.
I would be remiss in not mentioning Tatis, who looks destined to be one of the game's biggest superstars for many years to come. Unfortunately, injury cut his year short.
Honorable mention: Jorge Polanco at $3 (Can I Kick It?), Fernando Tatis Jr. at $2 (Gmonie16)

Third Base: Eduardo Escobar - VATECH NATS
$1 - Ranked 48 - 48
- If you were to tell me earlier this year that Escobar would have 35 HR, 94 runs, and 118 RBI, I would have thought you were nuckin' futz. But that's just life in 2019 now. Needless to say, he obliterated his prior career highs, and the extra eligibility at 2B and SS is just gravy.
Honorable mention: Rafael Devers at $20 (Gmonie16), Carlos Santana at $12 (Nuckin' Futz)

Outfield: Cody Bellinger - St. Hubert
$26 - Ranked 1 - 26
- If you can get the #1 player in fantasy for anything less than $50, you got yourself a good deal. In a year of incredible offense, it was Belly who soared the highest, contributing in all 5 categories for Hubie: 121 runs, 47 HR, 115 RBI, 15 SB, 95 BB, .305 BA. He also led the league in ladies running onto the field hysterically.
Honorable mention: Max Kepler at $1 (Bats R Us)

Outfield: Ketel Marte - AJ's Aces
$1 - Ranked 26 - 26
- OK, so many people are achieving career highs in all their power numbers, and I don't even know what real improvement is versus the juiced ball anymore. Case in point, Marte never had more than 14 HR before this year. This year he hit 32, and his OPS went up .200 points over his career high. I'm sure some of it is real since he's turning only 26 this month, but the dude weighs 165 pounds. Whatever the case may be, let's pour out some Ketel One for him.
Honorable mention: Shin-soo Choo at $1 (Hughes Drubbers)

Alright, alright, maybe you did bulk up.

Outfield: Trey Mancini - Hughes Drubbers
$3 - Ranked 38 - 114
- Given how bad the Orioles were this year, you could be forgiven for not noticing how good Mancini was this year. But Hughes Drubbers knew. Mancini hit .291 with 106 runs, 35 HR, and 97 RBI. He was also serviceable in the walks department (63), finishing with a .899 OPS. If he can overcome the horror of watching his own pitching staff, he looks like a productive player for B'more moving forward.
Honorable mention: Austin Meadows at $13 (Rip City Reavers)

Insane changeup.

Starting Pitchers:
Lucas Giolito - Syndergaarden Cop - $2 - Ranked 58 - 116
Sonny Gray - Grand Theft Votto - $3 - Ranked 47 - 141
Marcus Stroman - Nickel Blitz - $1 - Ranked 149 - 149
Hyun-Jin Ryu - Bats R Us - $10 - Ranked 25 - 250
Shane Bieber - Saratoga Oldtimers - $15 - Ranked 30 - 450
- Giolito threw 173.1 IP last year, and about the same number of innings this year. The difference between the two years is dramatic to say the least: he improved in ERA (6.13 down to 3.41), WHIP (1.48 down to 1.06) and K (125 up to 228!).
- I must admit, I was among Sonny Gray's doubters entering 2019. I figured he had flamed out like other undersized hurlers have in the past, such as Tim Lincecum, but he proved me wrong. He threw 175.1 IP with 205 K, 17 QS, 2.87 ERA, and 1.08 WHIP.
- After an injury-ravaged 2018 in which he had a 5.54 ERA, Throwman returned. He managed a 3.22 ERA and 18 QS, for which he was punished by a trade to the Mets.
- Ryu finally put it all together in 2019, pitching 182.2 IP. His league-leading ERA (2.32), elite WHIP (1.01) and 22 quality starts were a source of stability in Bats R Us's otherwise unreliable roster.
- In my household, Shane is the most famous Bieber. He had a breakthrough season with 24 quality starts, 259 K, 3.28 ERA and 1.05 WHIP for an Indians rotation that dealt with a lot of injuries.

Sliding enough for ya?

Relief Pitchers:
Taylor Rogers - Gmonie16 - $1 - Ranked 56 - 56
Ryan Pressly - Rip City Reavers - $6 - Ranked 67 - 402
Shane Greene - Grand Theft Votto - $3 - Ranked 82 - 246
- Finally getting an opportunity as a closer with the Twins, Rogers seized the moment. The lanky lefty whiffed 90 and accumulated with 30 saves and 10 holds to anchor the 'pen in Minnesota.
- Despite going on IL a couple times for a bad knee, Pressly continued where he left off in 2018, being the game's premier setup man. He tied for the league lead in holds (31) while maintaining elite ratios.
- In 2018, Greene was best known for being a frustrating-to-own closer - he gave you saves, but at the cost of high ERA and WHIP. He corrected things this year, with a 2.30 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an All-Star game appearance.


The All-Bust Team

Don't look.

I was comparing these busts to last year, and the data shows that this was a much more brutal year in terms of top talent being lost to injury and ineffectiveness. You may want to peek cautiously between your fingers on these....

Catcher: Danny Jansen - St. Hubert
$15 - Ranked 1058 - 15870
- Between Jansen and Mejia, you had two rookies with strong minor league stats putting together their first full years in the bigs. Unfortunately, they didn't actually put it together and will need to make adjustments to be productive at the plate.
Dishonorable mention: Francisco Mejia at $14 (Syndergaarden Cop)

I expected more from this bespectacled lad.

First Base: Matt Carpenter - Hughes Drubbers
$25 - Ranked 822 - 20550
- He was a top bargain last year, but everything that goes up must come down. After hitting 36 HR in 2018, his power was sapped due to injury, slugging merely 15 dingers to go along with a big decrease in OPS (.897 to .726). His plate discipline is still strong (12.8% BB rate), but his K-rate has increased every year since 2013.
Dishonorable mention: Daniel Murphy at $26 (Rip City Reavers)

Second Base: Travis Shaw - Bats R Us
$16 - Ranked 1178 - 18848
- After hitting over 30 HR in each of the last 2 years, Shaw fell off a cliff and had a .551 OPS over half a season. After demotion to AAA, he hit well there, but the Brewers are moving forward into the Keston Hiura era. His path to playing time next year would seem to be serving a utility man role.
Dishonorable mention: Robinson Cano at $14 (VATECH NATS)

Shortstop: Carlos Correa - Syndergaarden Cop
$29 - Ranked 785 - 22765
- For the third year in a row, Correa has underwhelmed based on missing at least 50 games each year. Turning 25 this month, you have to consider that he has not reached his potential yet; but you also have to consider whether he ever will. Time is on his side for now.
Dishonorable mention: Dee Gordon at $15 (Van Wageneneers)

However, he's already achieved peak cheerleading form.

Third Base: Miguel Andujar - Nickel Blitz
$20 - Ranked 1409 - 28180
- A Red Sox fan like Nickel Blitz should really know better than to draft a Yankee.
Dishonorable mention: Wil Myers at $15 (Van Wageneneers)

Outfield: Giancarlo Stanton - Bats R Us
$28 - Ranked 1185 - 33180
- "Mike" lost most of the season to injury (18 games played), which is scary because the Yankees still bopped over 300 HR without him. I'm just waiting for the inevitable showdown between the Astros fireballers and Yankees sluggers in the ALCS.
Dishonorable mention: Andrew McCutchen at $15 (Nickel Blitz)

Outfield: Khris Davis - Can I Kick It?
$32 - Ranked 739 - 23648
- After 3 consecutive years with at least 42 HR, Davis' production cratered in 2019, due largely to ineffectiveness against RHP (.588 OPS; 118 K in 351 AB). The A's managed to persevere in spite of his -1.0 WAR.
Dishonorable mention: A.J. Pollock at $17 (Bats R Us)

Outfield: Justin Upton - Nickel Blitz
$17 - Ranked 1049 - 17833
- Another year, another disappointing season for the Halos. Trout needs help, but overpaid veterans like Upton and Pujols are holding him back. Upton is only 32, but he seems to play a lot older. He could bounce back with better health after playing in only 63 games.
Dishonorable mention: Aaron Hicks at $12 (Saratoga Oldtimers)

Carrasco showed courage and grace in handling his diagnosis.

Starting Pitchers:
Corey Kluber - Can I Kick It? - $35 - Ranked 800 - 28000
Carlos Carrasco - Grand Theft Votto - $27 - Ranked 723 - 19521
Forrest Whitley - Nuckin' Futz - $7 - Ranked 2112 - 14784
Chris Archer - Grand Theft Votto - $12 - Ranked 769 - 9228
Nick Pivetta - Grand Theft Votto - $10 - Ranked 906 - 9060
- The Indians had a brutal year with their starters. Their ace, Kluber, fractured his ulna after a month, and Carrasco was diagnosed with leukemia. Thankfully, Carrasco got to play a bit at the end of the year, and hopefully both can return to health in the future.
- There was a run on prospects with Whitley being one of the top pitchers in the minors. For now, that heated anticipation has to wait because he has yet to make his debut.
- For the second consecutive year, Archer is on the duds list. He had a career worst 5.19 ERA.
- GTV's third SP bust is Pivetta, a guy who was buzzy in spring training but ended up posting a 5.38 ERA. He was eventually relegated to a relief role.

"I gave up 41 ER in 42.2 IP." -Wade Davis

Relief Pitchers:
Wade Davis - St. Hubert - $12 - Ranked 935 - 11220
Cody Allen - Bats R Us - $12 - Ranked 759 - 9108
David Robertson - Gmonie16 - $13 - Ranked 551 - 7163

- This may be hard to imagine, but Davis was projected as the #10 ranked RP in fantasy. With his 8.65 (!!!) ERA, Coors Field has officially broken him.
- After 2018 Cody Allen was on this list, 2019 Cody Allen said "hold my beer." His ERA has now gone from 2.94 to 4.70 to 6.26. He turns just 31 in November, so I wonder if he can get things back on track.
- Robertson had elbow surgery at 34 years old, so it would be impressive to see him become fantasy relevant again.
- Also, let's not ignore that Edwin Diaz ($15, Saratoga Oldtimers) was really bad, but his 99 K and 26 SV spared him from the list above.


All-Free Agent Team

This is always my favorite exercise: looking up who the biggest unforeseen breakouts were. There were a number of players who emerged from the free agent crop to become major contributors.

I'm gonna guess no one here has Royals merch.

C - Mitch Garver - 251
1B - Christian Walker - 114
2B - Jeff McNeil - 120
SS - Danny Santana - 102
3B - Hunter Dozier - 148
OF - Jorge Soler - 23
OF - Kole Calhoun - 142
OF - Brett Gardner - 150
Util - Bryan Reynolds - 164

- Since we had 14 teams drafting this year, there were very few diamonds in the rough. Jorge Soler was the best post-draft grab, hitting an AL-leading 48 HR with 95 runs, 117 RBI, and 73 BB. He had only 38 HR entering the year.
- There were actually several useful FA catchers, such as Christian Vazquez, Omar Narvaez, and James McCann, but Mitch Garver was the best of the bunch. He finishes the season as the #3 catcher in fantasy, slugging 31 HR in just 311 AB. His previous career high was 7.
- The most interesting infielder was perhaps Danny Santana, a guy who had never hit more than 7 HR in a season. He erupted for 28 HR, 81 runs, 81 RBI, and 20 SB. His .283 BA was surprisingly good despite his K-rate (29.5%). He also had more HR than BB (25).
- You didn't think I forgot Yordan Alvarez, did you? He finished the year ranked 179, but that's based on only half a year's worth of playing time. If you look at his production from a season average perspective, the guy would be ranked 11. In only 313 AB, he had 27 HR, 58 runs, 78 RBI, 52 BB, and a .313 BA.
- Other standout rookie FAs include Keston Hiura, Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette, Will Smith, and Aristides Aquino. These guys had a major impact on team performance!

His final BAA was .123, best in the Bigs.

SP - Mike Soroka - 69
SP - Lance Lynn - 94
RP - Liam Hendriks - 39
RP - Yusmeiro Petit - 52
P - Brandon Workman - 53
P - Emilio Pagan - 62
P - Seth Lugo - 65
P - Mike Minor - 138

Unlike the offense, there were still a lot of good pitching FAs out there when the year began.
- Texas had a couple useful SPs in Lynn and Minor, both of whom pitched over 200 innings. They each eclipsed the 200 K mark with at least 16 QS. Lynn really wowed, finishing 3rd overall in WAR (Fangraphs) and beating out guys like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke.
- Similarly, the A's bullpen had a pair of fantasy stars in Hendriks and Petit. The former led the team in saves (25) with 124 K, 1.80 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Meanwhile, the latter was one of the top setup men in the game, posting 29 holds to go with a 2.71 ERA and 0.81 WHIP.
- Joffrey Baratheon Mike Soroka had a sensational rookie season. He managed to pitch 174.2 IP and accrue 18 QS, including a 2.68 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. We'll see him in the playoffs.
- Work did work, which is more than I can say for many of Boston's relievers. He had 104 K and 31 SV+HLD to go with an elite 1.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The crazy thing is he did all this despite an unsightly BB/9 (5.65).
- When a reliever hits triple-digits in Ks, it means he's doing something right. Lugo joined that club this year (104) and added 21 HLD, a 2.70 ERA, and 0.90 WHIP.
- Every year, the Rays have a new closer. Last year it was Sergio Romo/Jose Alvarado, in 2017 is was Alex Colome. Before him it was... Brad Boxberger? I don't even remember who it was before him. Anyways, Pagan was a beast with 20 SV, 7 HLD, 96 K, 2.31 ERA, and 0.83 WHIP.


Odds and Ends


Wooooooo! Bring it home!
  • Aside from my keepers (Gleyber, J-Ram, and Bauer), the other players who were on last year's championship team were Josh Hader and Taylor Rogers. Matt Carpenter also technically got another title after joining in the final days of championship week in 2019.
  • We had a record seven trades pulled off this year! Normally I would analyze each of them, but honestly it's too much work, and many of them looked even. The only one I thought was a steal was AJ's Aces getting Alex Bregman for Aaron Nola. Nola turned things around, but Bregman is the #5 ranked player in all of fantasy.
  • For the second year in a row, Gmonie16 was the most active in overall transactions with a new record of 106, edging out Rip City at 101. 
  • Overall, our league shattered the previous record for total transactions. We had 746 this year, crushing our old high of 510 in 2017 (also a 14-team league).
  • We spent a total of $511 in waiver bids this year, again shattering our previous record of $276 (2016). The largest FAAB of the season was $50 for Chris Paddack, spent by VATECH NATS.
    • I also spent $38 on Jung Ho Kang at the beginning of the year with no competing bids. Not proud of it.
    • The record bid remains $127 for Joe Ross, spent by Nuckin' Futz in 2015. He always gets his man.
  • St. Hubert led the league in win percentage at .659. This was so close to beating the all-time record for season win percentage, which is .661, set by Run All Night in 2015.
Life.

Thanks to all the Nephews for playing this year! I hope to see you all in 2020. Enjoy the real playoffs!

Past season synopses and champions:
  • 2019 - Rip City Reavers
  • 2018 - Rip City Reavers
  • 2017 - AJ's Aces
  • 2016 - VATECH NATS
  • 2015 - Rip City Reavers
  • 2014 - Saratoga Oldtimers 
  • 2013 - Rip City Reavers
  • 2012 - Rip City Reavers
  • 2011 - Hughes Drubbers

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