Friday, September 30, 2011

The Nephews of Jody Reed Draft Day Revue

Auction drafts can propel you to the heights of bargain-hunting ecstasy, or cast you down to the doldrums of ripped off ignominy. In many cases, all managers achieve these highs and lows, but the one that has the best overall draft typically performs the best over the course of the season, right?

Jody Reed and his mustache were renewed for just $300,000 for the 1990 season: BARGAIN.
Well, I ran the numbers to determine just that. Click below for a complete analysis of team draft performance, the top bargains, and the most shameful busts from the 2011 fantasy baseball season.




First off, I'll discuss my methodology for evaluating each team's draft. I compiled all of the players bought and prices paid from the auction into a spreadsheet, and then looked up the end-of-season ranks for every player that was drafted. While it's difficult to compare ranks against one another - the difference in value between rankings of 1 and 100 is vastly different from that of 100 and 200, or 1000 and 1100 - I felt it was the only reasonable way to draw comparisons without spending weeks compiling data on each of the stat categories NoJR uses for scoring.

From there, I simply added up all the ranks for each team and divided by the number of roster spots (23) to arrive at the average drafted player ranking for each team. The team with the lowest number obviously had the most well-ranked players. Here's how the numbers turned out:
  1. Falmouth Falcons - 229
  2. Lloyd's Christmas - 296
  3. Dogfood Salad - 314
  4. HeadFirstInto3rdBase - 322
  5. Mass Tortfeasors - 323
  6. Izzy's Dizzy's - 334
  7. Hipolito Pichardo - 374
  8. Hughes Drubbers - 374
  9. Nickel Blitz - 399
  10. Rip City Reavers - 419
  11. Alliance Federals - 466
  12. Dirty Sanchez Boys - 487
Falmouth Falcon wins the title of best drafter this year, while Dirty Sanchez Boys brings up the rear. You may recall that DSB had to make quite a few $1 selections due to unintended auto-drafting; in fact, over half of his draft was $1 players, so it's not surprising that he had to abandon so many useless players.

Hey DSB. Remember me? I thought DSB+ALR was 4evs. :(
You don't need to run a correlation to see that draft performance didn't have much to do with actual season performance. It was really the teams that were most active - on the waiver wire and in setting their rosters *cough* - that did well.

These numbers don't really tell the whole story, though. Some teams didn't use much of their budget on bad players, while others did. To summarize the worst picks of the draft I present...


Team Facepalm

To determine the most infuriating selections from this year's draft, I devised a simple formula of Dollars Spent * Rank, so the players with the highest value here are clearly the worst. Here are the supreme disappointments:

Catcher: Buster Posey - Alliance Federals
$36 - Ranked 1036 - 36260
- Frustration set in for the Alliance when Buster succumbed to a season-ending injury after a nasty collision at home plate. Seeing that leg bend the way it did made many chunder. Just an unlucky break for the Feds as they were saddled with the biggest loss of all teams.
Honorable mention: Geovany Soto at $12 (HeadFirstInto3rdBase)

First Base: Adam Dunn - Rip City Reavers
$29 - Ranked 1155 - 33495
- The windy city was the recipient of new gales this summer as Adam Dunn whiffed his way to one of the worst seasons I've ever seen. Despite playing for the entire year, he finished the year with a .159 batting average and a career high K rate of 35.7%. PS: his K rate was already massive to begin with. I thought I was going to win three categories with him (HR, RBI, and BB) but the only category I ended up winning was LOLs for the most ridiculously overpaid player in the draft. At least Posey had the excuse of injury. This guy has no excuse.
Honorable mention: Justin Morneau at $23 (Dogfood Salad)

Second Base: Chase Utley - Hughes Drubbers
$23 - Ranked 307 - 7061
- Given that Chase was injured for a significant portion of the year, one could argue that HD paid for elite second half stats to help down the stretch and into the playoffs. The reality is that Utley was productive but not to his normal standards, posting his lowest BA and OPS since his first year in the league. Certainly not as useless as some of the other jokers on this list though.
Honorable mention: Chone Figgins at $4 (HeadFirstInto3rdBase)

Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez - Lloyd's Christmas
$57 - Ranked 293 - 16701
- Whether it was injury or being a complete idiot, Hanley just could not get things going in 2011. He was the highest paid player in the draft, and though his ranking doesn't look that bad, I'm sure LC would tell you that he was easily the most infuriating player in the league. Even I was annoyed by his malarkey, and I wasn't even his owner.
Honorable mention: Rafael Furcal at $12 (Nickel Blitz)

Derp.
Third Base: Ryan Zimmerman - Dogfood Salad
$39 - Ranked 288 - 11232
- Third base was already a rather thin position heading into the draft, and Zimmerman made it even worse by getting an abdominal tear and then coming back and having an OPS 100 points below his norm. He just edges out fellow NL East hot corner compadre David Wright as stars that didn't live up to their preseason billing.
Honorable mention: David Wright at $47 (Izzy's Dizzy's)

Outfield: Shin-Soo Choo - Rip City Reavers
$30 - Ranked 696 - 20880
- From drunk driving, to a broken thumb to busted ribs, Choo did everything he could to make this season as horrible as possible for the Reavers. Based on his stats from previous years, he seemed like a lock for a .300 BA and a nice 20-20 power and speed blend. Unfortunately the only thing I got that was 20-20 was hindsight.
Honorable mention: Alex Rios at $15 (Hughes Drubbers)
 
Outfield: Jason Heyward - Rip City Reavers
$26 - Ranked 644 - 16744
- Busts are apparently littered throughout the Rip City outfield (and lineup) as Heyward takes his spot in right field next to Choo. Coming off a promising year in which he displayed great patience and some decent power, Heyward regressed dramatically in 2011, compiling an OPS barely north of .700. It seemed like there was always some excuse for his troubles: phantom shoulder pain here, a bad back there. Really, a bad back? YOU'RE 22 YEARS OLD. Though he was considered by some to be the next Ken Griffey Jr., I can't wait until I exclude him from my keeper list based on how far he's fallen.
Honorable mention: Jayson Werth at $25 (Mass Tortfeasors)

Two worthless outfielders = double facepalm
Outfield: Carl Crawford - Izzy's Dizzy's
$48 - Ranked 233 - 11184
- Completing the outfield is Carl Crawford out in left. Even without the requisite hamstring issues in the middle of the year, CC was only good in spurts, and never at the right time. With any luck, he won't get fat and turn into John Lackey Part Deux. With only 18 steals on the year, my fear seems justified.
Honorable mention: Andre Ethier at $20 (Dogfood Salad)

Starting Pitchers:
Ubaldo Jimenez - Lloyd's Christmas - $26 - Ranked 827 - 21502
Francisco Liriano - Nickel Blitz - $12 - Ranked 975 - 11700
Roy Oswalt - Nickel Blitz - $18 - Ranked 342 - 6156
Chad Billingsley - Hughes Drubbers - $6 - Ranked 794 - 4764
Phil Hughes - Hughes Drubbers - $4 - Ranked 980 - 3920
- Ubaldo leads a cringe-worthy staff that just could not get things going in 2011. Jimenez himself came off a stellar 2010 only to lose that Rocky Mountain magic in 2011. Following a trade to Cleveland, he still managed to stink it up... granted, there was a stench there before he arrived, but 'baldy did his part.

Relief Pitchers:
Ryan Franklin - HeadFirstInto3rdBase - $5 - Ranked 1011 - 5055
Joakim Soria - Alliance Federals - $19 - Ranked 195 - 3705
Jonathan Broxton - Dirty Sanchez Boys - $5 - Ranked 653 - 3265
- Franklin blew saves like clockwork to open the year, losing his closer role by mid-April, and by the end of June he pitched himself out of the league entirely. Soria had a mediocre year, and was overpaid for his meager services. Broxton - aka MLB's 300 lb man - hurt his elbow and may never return to his former self.


Team Thrift

On the bright side, quite a few bargains were also had on draft day. Here are the players who went above and beyond their pay to help their team succeed:

Catcher: Mike Napoli - Hipolito Pichardo
$4 - Ranked 58 - 232
- Napoli was an absolute beast for the homer-happy Hipolitos. Everyone knew he had the power (30 HR), but a .320 batting average?! It's a shame he only had 369 at-bats, he could have challenged for the HR title at the pace he was going.
Honorable mention: Carlos Ruiz at $1 (Nickel Blitz)

First Base: Michael Morse - Dirty Sanchez Boys
$1 - Ranked 44 - 44
- I remember sitting next to DSB and both of us remarking that Mike Morse could be a great value buy. We weren't mistaken, as he became one of the most valuable players at an offense-rich position. His OF eligibility only adds to his greatness.
Honorable mention: Eric Hosmer at $1 (Alliance Federals)


Second Base: Howie Kendrick - Izzy's Dizzy's
$1 - Ranked 82 - 82
- The blowhards at Yahoo Sports have been talking this guy up for years, and finally he put together a season that was a good value. At $1 anyways.
Honorable mention: Omar Infante at $1 (Alliance Federals)

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera - HeadFirstInto3rdBase
$1 - Ranked 43 - 43
- I would have never guessed that Asdrubal Cabrera could carry a team in spurts, but that's exactly what he did in some cases for HeadFirst. With plus pop and speed from a position that typically offers little offense, Cabrera was a rare bit of fresh air in Cleveland.
Honorable mention: Erick Aybar at $1 (Hughes Drubbers)

Third Base: Chipper Jones - Izzy's Dizzy's
$1 - Ranked 212 - 212
- With regard to my previous comment about third base being thin... wow. Chipper is barely draftable with a ranking in the 200's (we drafted 276 players) and is still more of a bargain than the slew of third basemen who were injured or underperformed. Hughes Drubbers's Michael Young, ranked #26 at a price of $15, might be the most startable value buy from the draft.
Honorable mention: David Freese at $1 (Dogfood Salad)

Outfield: Curtis Granderson - Hughes Drubbers
$6 - Ranked 6 - 36
- The Drubbers won the championship in no small part due to the incredible contributions of the Grandy Man. Posting elite numbers in R, HR, and RBI, as well as plus production in BB and SB, few could overcome HD's weekly offensive output.
Honorable mention: Carlos Beltran at $1 (Alliance Federals)

I liked him more when he couldn't hit lefties.
Outfield: Matt Kemp - Dirty Sanchez Boys
$37 - Ranked 1 - 37
- With meddlesome manager Joe Torre out of the picture, Matt Kemp spread his wings and put together the best fantasy season this year. He nearly achieved the first triple crown in over 40 years, and he was no slouch at working the count (career high 74 walks) or running the base paths (40 steals). For that kind of production, he's a bargain at almost any price.
Honorable mention: Adam Jones at $1 (Izzy's Dizzy's)

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury - Mass Tortfeasors
$20 - Ranked 3 - 60
- The future AL MVP. Tacoby exceeded all expectations with a ridiculous 30-30 season and led the league in total bases and WAR. He'll be a hot commodity next year if he isn't locked up as a keeper.
Honorable mention: Michael Bourn at $3 (HeadFirstInto3rdBase)

Boom baby.
Starting Pitchers:
James Shields - Dogfood Salad - $1 - Ranked 17 - 17
Ian Kennedy - Dogfood Salad - $1 - Ranked 21 - 21
Justin Verlander - HeadFirstInto3rdBase - $19 - Ranked 2 - 38
C.J. Wilson - Nickel Blitz - $1 - Ranked 48 - 48
Johnny Cueto - Izzy's Dizzy's - $1 - Ranked 70 - 70
- Big Game James was the best $1 value in the entire league, earning an impressive top-20 ranking for the tenacious Rays. Cy Young contender Ian Kennedy was not far behind, while AL Cy Young lock Justin Verlander was the second best player in the Yahoo game despite costing only $19.

Relief Pitchers:
Tyler Clippard - Mass Tortfeasors - $1 - Ranked 80 - 80
Kyle Farnsworth - Izzy's Dizzy's - $1 - Ranked 101 - 101
Ryan Madson - Dirty Sanchez Boys - $1 - Ranked 107 - 107
- Aside from wearing sweet eyewear, T-Clip posted elite K, ERA, and WHIP numbers while leading the league in holds. Farnsy, sporting similar specs, had perhaps the best year of his career, while Ryan Madson performed admirably as Mr. Doitall for the Phillies bullpen.


Last but not least, there's...

The Band of Rejects

These undrafted players became major contributors for many of our teams, and makes me feel especially bad for drafting so many busts when all this talent was available. Next year I'm going all Royals...

Melking the moment much?
C - Alex Avila - Ranked 122
1B - Lance Berkman - Ranked 32
2B - Ryan Roberts - Ranked 120
SS - Jhonny Peralta - Ranked 89
3B - Alex Gordon - Ranked 23
OF - Melky Cabrera - Ranked 24
OF - Jeff Francoeur - Ranked 49
OF - Coco Crisp - Ranked 87

SP - Doug Fister - Ranked 51
SP - Ryan Vogelsong - Ranked 89
SP - Alfredo Aceves - Ranked 121
SP - Cory Luebke - Ranked 127
SP - Alexi Ogando - Ranked 134

RP - Fernando Salas - Ranked 71
RP - Mike Adams - Ranked 79
RP - Sergio Santos - Ranked 124

Thanks to all managers for a fun year! I hope to see you back for more NoJR action in 2012.

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