Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Nephews of Jody Reed 2012 Budget Baseball Bonanza

In what will prove to be another scintillating year of fantasy baseball, NoJR is back for a second season. Following last year's rookie campaign, there were some important lessons learned, specifically that you've got to be careful spending those precious auction dollars - there are only a few decent values at the beginning of the draft, but many great values later on if you look carefully.

These flip-down shades need to make a comeback.
The NoJR draft is complete, and TDZ is ready to weigh in on who the likely bargains will be.


TDZ's 2012 Dollar Dirt Dawgs

Catcher - Wilson Ramos - Alliance Federals

I couldn't tell you why I passed over Ramos for Geo Soto, but I can tell you now that I'm ruing the decision. The 24 year old backstop has 20+ homer pop, but with a batting average that doesn't ruin your team like other hard-hitting fringe catching options, like John Buck, Miguel Olivo, and Geovany So-bad. He's primed for a breakout year, and he knows a thing or two about breaking out.

First Base - Kendrys Morales - Analog Kid

Hopefully he's learned a thing or two about celebrating home runs, especially since I see no reason why he can't go back to mashing this year. He suffered a freak injury that doesn't affect his swing, and he's going to get a lot of RBI opportunities batting in the clean-up spot behind OBP machine Albert Pujols.


Second Base - Kelly Johnson - Analog Kid

I wish I could quit this guy. He was a top 5 second baseman just two years ago, and has 25 HR and 15 steal ability. The real upside, for me, is his walk rate, which was second only to Ben Zobrist among 2Bers. He's batting in front of Jose Bautista and is already leading his position in walks while belting 4 homers, so I feel somewhat justified in grabbing him from the free agent pool.

Shortstop - Mike Aviles - Adrian Gonzalez

He's been stellar at the top of the order following Jacoby's injury, and his usefulness is even greater considering his Swiss army knife eligibility at 2B and 3B. Look for him to fill the stat sheet throughout the year.

Third Base - Mark Trumbo - Teltec's Bunters

Multi-position eligibility wins the day again as Trumbo needs just one more start at third to qualify for 3B, 1B, and OF. He has 30+ homer potential, and he's typically batting 5th in the order for the Angels. He's off to a quick start already and should build on a strong rookie campaign - think Mark Reynolds, but without the K-rate/batting average heartburn.

Outfield - Lucas Duda - Analog Kid

Fantasy pundits have been singing Lucas's praises all the doo-da day since last season, and I have to agree with them. He got about half a year's worth of ABs in 2011, and if you project that production over a full 600 ABs, you're looking at 20+ homers, about 100 RBI, and solid batting average and walk numbers. He's started the year with a slightly higher K-rate, but give him a larger sample size and see his stats even out.

The Duda bides his time at BP.
Outfield - Alex Rios - Nuckin' Futz

Speaking of stats evening out, look for a nice return to BABIP normalcy for the pride of Coffee, Alabama. Rios had an absurd .237 BABIP last year, and with his very reasonable K-rate, I don't see him coming close to replicating that. He's just 2 years removed from a 20-30 campaign - my gut tells me that the pop is still there in his age 31 season, but we'll have to see if the speed also remains.

Outfield - Yoenis Cespedes - Alliance Federals

I got a nice look at the Cuban defector with the early games in Japan, and I'm surprised no one outbid the A's of all teams for his services. He's as strong as an ox, and as fast as a galloping steed. Since the tools are there, it's just a matter of whether he can handle MLB-caliber competition. For $1, I'll bet "Si."

Graduate of the Wily Mo Pena school for swinging as hard as humanly possible.
Starting Pitcher - Chris Sale - Teltec's Bunters

At the risk of sounding like a Herman Cain stump speech, there are three very good reasons why Chris Sale should be a solid fantasy contributor this year: K/9, K/9, K/9. The early returns are good, and it'll just be a matter of keeping his arm fresh as he's a converted reliever.

No one does a "I got Chris Sale on my fantasy team" smile creepier than Herman Cain.
Starting Pitcher - Brett Myers - Rip City Reavers

Hold on, isn't Brett Myers closing now? You bet, and that's why I picked him. He's got sneaky SP eligibility, which means I can have an extra reliever on my roster to pick up saves. Sure those opportunities may be few and far between for the ramshackle Astros, but he's proven his quality as a closer before (2007), and every save he gets out of the SP spot is one that my competitor will not. If Alfredo Aceves didn't have an ERA well into the double digits, he'd also be on this list.

Starting Pitcher - Wandy Rodriguez - Analog Kid

Yes, he's still pitching for the worst team in the league, but here's a guy who's rock steady and gives you exactly what you expect - ERA in the mid-3's, decent strikeout totals, a .500 winning percentage, and zero surprises. It's important to note that there's a strong likelihood that he joins a contender later this year, so the upside for wins is higher than you think, and the last thing you need is volatility in the back end of your rotation when the playoffs roll around.

Setup Relief - Vinnie Pestano - Rip City Reavers

There are lots of good middle relievers out there, but I pegged Mr. Pestano as the consigliere of my pen. He looks like the 8th inning guy in Cleveland, but he has the upside of potentially taking over for everyone's least favorite closer, Chris Perez. Then again, this is an organization that trotted out Joe Borowski to blow even the most secure leads. Remember him? Either way, he'll figure prominently in the late innings for the Tribe, and I'm happy enough just having the holds, Ks, and ratios.

Never forget the Joe Borowski "Russian roulette years" - April 2006-July 2008
Closer - Huston Street - Teltec's Bunters

I might get some grief for this selection, but I think Street was an underrated option on draft day. For starters, he really hasn't had injury issues for the last year plus. Secondly, Petco is to pitchers what dogs are to man: his best friend. With the way the Padres play, nearly all of their wins will be by just a run or two, so save opportunities will abound - just ask Heath Bell how that worked out for him.


Congrats to Analog Kid for having the most bargain buys! Surely your wild early spending was by design with so many great values in mind.

1 comment: