Pirates' Cove: Jolly Roger Revival

Aye, it was a fine crew. Captain Clint remembers the day he conducted roll call fondly. They wouldn't be the first choice for many captains, but where others saw 25 cutthroats and knavish rogues, ol' Clinty saw 25 able seamen. 'You can sail to hell and back with these men, and you can lay to that,' said the Cap'n.

The vessel was another story. It was a treacherous, barnacle-encrusted wench that could hardly be considered sea-worthy, patched together with driftwood and desperation. Its state of disrepair belied the glory she once knew. Once a pearl of the high seas under the terrifying commands of such legends as Clemente and Stargell, generation after generation pillaged and plundered to its heart's content.

That was until 18 years ago. The gentlemen of fortune, led by old salt Van Slyke and his first mate Bonds, dropped anchor and disembarked in search of treasure when they were ambushed by Braves. Shiver me timbers! what a fierce battle was waged that day, cutlasses clashing with tomahawks, scalps flying. Just when ol' Van's buckos looked to have the upper hand, a young Brave named Cabrera dealt a death blow to crewman Belinda that irrevocably shifted the tide of battle.

Chased back to their ship, the buccaneers found their vessel (tomahawk) chopped and set ablaze. By the time the crew recovered what was left of the ship and weighed anchor, the damage had been done, seaman Drabek and the first mate Bonds were gone, and the treasure was lost.

What followed from that fateful day is considered by some to be Cabrera's Curse. The crew stumbled from port to port, three sheets to the wind, and hornswaggled at every stop. The booty of past triumphs had been all but spent. The only respite these once proud gentlemen of fortune could hope for was the merciful descent to Davy Jones' Locker.  Ol' Clinty had his work cut out for him to make these scallywags the terrors they once were. But terrors they would be.

Now four months into their voyage, the seamen have already proved their worth. But the crew still has 3 months to go before it can end Cabrera's curse and claim the very bounty they never dreamed would be within their grasp again: the 30 flags of gold.


From its crow's nest perch, TDZ can see the horizon for these old seadogs. Here's an analysis of what lies ahead as these Pirates give it the old heave ho down the home stretch.

Offense:
The outlook is not good as it currently stands. The Pirates are 6th to last in homeruns, runs, wOBA (weighted on-base average), wRC (weighted runs created) - they're flat out the 6th worst offense in MLB.

We knew Andrew McCutchen would be leading this offense, but there are some other bats starting to lend a hand. Recent call-up Alex Presley has been a stellar fill-in for Jose Tabata, generating a wRC comparable to McClutchen, though benefited by a high BABIP. Prized prospect Pedro Alvarez should also rejoin the big club, providing at least 50% more offense than current 3B Brandon Wood (wRC of 111 for Alvarez in 2010, versus just 76 for Wood this year). If Oakland OF Josh Willingham can lend a willing hand via trade, this offense just might get some wind in its sails. Unlike frequent Taco Bell patrons, maybe the runs won't be a problem for them soon.

Defense:
Unfortunately these gains on offense would be accompanied by trade-offs on defense. Alvarez is not a good defensive player, to the point where on a WAR/game basis he and Wood are not very different this year. Likewise, I don't trust former catcher Josh Willingham anymore than I trust the politicians in Washington to do something reasonable about this debt ceiling debate.

If the Pirates really want to generate extra wins, I'd like to see them go after Michael Cuddyer. His WAR is +2 this year over Willingham, he has the flexibility to play 3B should Alvarez not return to form, and he's a great clubhouse guy. A young team like the Pirates is going to need leadership if they expect to win against good teams late in the year. More defensive-minded options could include Jeff Francoeur, David Dejesus, and Coco Crisp.

See? Cuddyer already knows what to do.

Pitching:
This is the real reason the Pirates are winning games, however I half expect the ghost of BABIP to come and give this team the Black Spot. Many of their starters are benefiting either from low HR/9 (Charlie Morton) or unusually low BABIP (Paul Maholm, and especially Jeff Karstens). To some degree I believe that a pitcher makes his own luck, but even guys with the filthiest stuff normalize at some point, e.g. Ubaldo Jimenez returning to earth in the second half of last year.

Still, I like this team's bullpen, particularly closer Joel Hanrahan and an underrated middle relief crew led by Jose Veras. In the end though, the Pirates FIP-ERA differential is the highest in the league, suggesting that there's a storm coming. Batten down the hatches.

It's a cannonade!

Conclusion:
This weekend we may be seeing that squall. The division rival Cardinals have already taken two games in Pittsburgh - Friday was a 6-4 loss, and Saturday was a 9-1 massacre. I want the Pirates to win as much as anyone, but for them to win the division, they need some of their prospects to be further along than they are, and they need a lot more luck than any team can expect to have. Nevertheless, I hope a landlubber like myself is wrong and old Clinty and his crew defeat their demons. Take what ye can, give nothing back, lads!