NoJR 2k19 Mid-way Musings

It's half-time for the 2019 season, and it's been fascinating to watch it unfold. Every playoff spot is very much up-for-grabs - as important players get injured, new stars emerge, and rookies join The Show, there's truly no way of telling who will emerge on top. What I do know is that this has been the most competitive seasons of NoJR in league history, and it's been incredibly fun to see teams slugging it out each week.

Cody Bellinger is leading St. Hubert in homers and fans rushing the field.

In this article, I recap some storylines shaping the 2019 season, and do a quick roster-by-roster summary to celebrate stars and disparage duds for each team.


2019 Storylines

#1: Technology and analytics continue to shape the game.
I've recently been reading The MVP Machine by Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik, and it's been an interesting look into how players are using technology to optimize how they play the game. I wish I had a book like this growing up - I already feel like I could increase my max velo from 51 to 55 mph.

In particular, the book highlights some players who are leading the way in terms of influencing their teammates to change the way they hit or pitch. I had heard about Justin Turner being a launch angle advocate, but I didn't realize he was influenced by Marlon Byrd, who "randomly" became a home run threat in his mid-thirties under the guidance of hitting whisperer Doug Latta. Likewise, J.D. Martinez was a major influence on Mookie Betts, helping him to unlock further potential to win a MVP award last year.

But it goes beyond simply talking about launch angle. Players have been talking about launch angle for decades. Even Ted Williams talked about swing plane in The Science of Hitting. But what teams are doing now is using technology to analyze technique and energy transfer, teaching players how to make incremental improvements that end up culminating in some noticeable power gains.

On the pitching side, Trevor Bauer is a focal point for how scientific inquiry is upending some of the previous accepted truths for how pitchers should train and throw the ball. His unorthodox methods, which once elicited insults from other players and coaches, are now seriously considered as new ways for pitchers to unlock their potential. They need to do a 30 for 30 on this guy's career, and how his old teammate at UCLA, Gerrit Cole, came to benefit from the analytics revolution.

Weighted balls, high frame rate video capture, and loooooooong toss are just a few of his training methods.

I'm only 5 chapters in at the moment, but the teams that seemed to come up most frequently as being on the cutting edge of new methods have been the Astros, Dodgers, and Rays. Considering how deep their prospect pipelines are, it was hardly a surprise to learn that. I recommend this book for any baseball nerds out there.


#2: OK, for real though, the ball is juiced.
I read an article a while back that Triple-A leagues have adopted use of MLB's baseball, and home runs have skyrocketed. In the Pacific Coast League (PCL), the league went from 0.94 HR/Game to 1.44 HR/Game - a 53% increase. The International League went from 0.80 to 1.25 (56% increase).

While new player development techniques certainly could increase HR rates, these types of sustained surges are beyond the pale. Pitchers want the league to come clean.

Old baseball on the left, new with lower seams on the right.

The difference seems to be the seams - today's baseballs have seams that stay closer to the baseball's surface, making them more aerodynamic (and more difficult to grip). Another article at Five Thirty Eight reported that the core of today's balls are also less dense and half a gram lighter - which doesn't sound like much but combined with the seams can have a noticeable impact.

What does this mean for our fantasy game? It means home runs are cheaper than ever - there are a lot more sluggers to plug and play from free agency.

I also wonder if SBs are down this year, because it seems like they are. I would hypothesize that they are, with the reason being that so many of today's runs are getting hit home via the dinger. Why risk getting thrown out if a home run is the more likely means of coming home? Unfortunately I don't have time to investigate this at the moment.

Edit: Justin Verlander also teed off on MLB juicing the balls over the All-Star break. (link)


#3: Bullpens are increasingly fluid - but that's OK.
The reluctance of teams to commit to Craig Kimbrel on a contract was fascinating. More teams seem to be moving toward a fluid bullpen model, where a team's best reliever might come in for the 8th or 9th - or pitch both! Ace relievers like Josh Hader are just as likely to come in during the 8th inning as they are the 9th. And don't even get me started on the Red Sox bullpen!

Who will they call on? Barnes? Workman? Walden? Brasier? Hembree? Your guess is as good as mine.

Fortunately, NoJR has always been set up to reward top relievers no matter what inning they pitch - so long as their team holds a lead and it's a high leverage situation. We capture both Holds and Saves, meaning a good reliever is simply a good reliever and you don't have to worry about how they're used as much.


#4: "Openers" seem to be here to stay - and that might not be OK.
One of the big changes for 2019 was to get rid of Wins and add Quality Starts as a category. Overall, I've been lukewarm on the stat, partly because many teams are adopting an "opener" model where a reliever throws one or two innings to start a game and then hits the showers. Often, a long relief pitcher will then eat up the middle innings, but they are ineligible to get a Quality Start.

Ryne Stanek: Opener Extraordinaire

With the diminishing importance of Starters, I worry about QS as a long-term category option for the league. I almost wonder if IP might be a better category, because ultimately there will always be value for pitchers who eat up innings - they are essential to any pitching staff.

My other issue is how QS feels a bit arbitrary. If a guy gives up 1 earned run over 5.2 IP, and another gives up 3 ER over 6 innings, who really had the better start?

Just some thoughts for us to ponder when we get to 2020.


Team Storylines

Let's take some time to celebrate and lament the ups and downs of the fantasy season so far. Here are my takes on the biggest storylines for each team.

Nuckin' Futz - I gotchu.

	1st Half MVP	Biggest Dud	Key to Victory
Bats R Us	Hyun-Jin Ryu: QS machine (14) with a microscopic 1.73 ERA, leading BRU to a 9-5 record on the QS stat cat.	Giancarlo Stanton: has only 38 PA for the entire season. Hunter Renfroe has picked up some of the slack though.	Better relievers. He just beat the #1 team in the league - imagine if he got a few solid bullpen pieces!
Syndergaarden Cop	Yoan Moncada: he has officially broken out. The more aggressive approach means a lower walk rate, but much higher BA, and he looks like a viable keeper at $11.	Francisco Mejia: he had major potential at a thin position, but never earned the playing time to justify his $14 draft investment. Sisco is now filling in capably.	Aaron Judge: with him back, SC's offense takes on a whole new look.
Can I Kick It?	Christian Yelich: who else? He picked up right where he left off last year and is the best 6-category contributor in our league.	Corey Kluber: the pitching staff is missing that anchor that Kluber was supposed to be. The cast was recently removed from his arm, but still no timetable for his return.	Vlad Jr.: once he hits to his potential, this lineup will be utterly lethal. If I could be permitted another, I would also select Clevinger as the one pitcher with the potential to stabilize this team's pitching.
Nick-el Blitz	Xander Bogaerts: he's posting career high OBP and SLG as the #11 ranked player in fantasy. That's just good hitting. Honorable mention to Mike Minor.	Blake Treinen: went from being the #2 overall RP last year to losing his closing gig. Buster Posey was a close second for me as he looks unrosterable at this point.	Better bullpen performance would go a long way, particularly if Blake Treinen can return to form.
Van Wageneneers	Pete Alonso: he's already got 30 HR and looks every bit the part of Grade-A certified, middle of the lineup beef. Honorable mention: DJ LeMahieu.	Noah Syndergaard: the ERA and QS numbers are below expectations, but at least he's on track for 200 IP.	Carlos Correa: if he returns and plays to his potential, VW will have a much needed infusion of power for a lineup that's a bit light-hitting outside of Alonso, Arenado, and Pederson.
AJ's Aces	Ketel Marte: 20 HRs? Seriously?! Love the position flexibility too (2B, SS, OF).	Corey Seager: he's reached the tipping point of being considered an injury-prone player. SS is so deep that AJ probably couldn't get good value for him.	Having a Catcher: sure, the options are pretty bleak, but counting stats are still important!
Gmonie 16	Rafael Devers: the kid has finally arrived, bolstering the Boston lineup with power and average. Honorable mention: Liam Hendriks.	Rick Porcello: a 5.33 ERA is bad. It's especially bad when weighted against 100 IP.	OF help: outside of maybe Kepler, none of those options strikes fear into any fantasy opponent; some late season call-ups could help.
VA-TECH NATS	Max Scherzer: he leads the league in QS, Ks, and WAR (if you care about that). Would love to see a debate between Scherzer and Kershaw for best pitcher of this generation.	Joey Votto: it looks like his star is finally dimming as even the juiced baseball isn't helping him hit for power.	Andrew Benintendi: he's striking out more often and not hitting for average like last year. As a Red Sox fan, I also want to see him do better.
Toga	Lance Lynn: did you know he leads all AL pitchers in WAR (Fangraphs)? He leads Toga in QS. Honorable mention to Kirby Yates.	Edwin Diaz: last year he was the #1 RP in the game. This year he's at a putrid 263 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. The corpse of Jake McGee is ranked ahead of him.	Kevin Newman: helloooo, Newman. I had never heard of the guy before this year, but if he keeps offering category juice at 2B, that shores up the Toga lineup.
Hug-hes Drub-bers	Trevor Story: despite missing some time, he's been a beast, contributing in every category for an offense that has needed the help.	Matt Carpenter: Following a career year in 2018, his OPS has dropped from .897 to .706. He started dead cold in 2018 though, so another correction may be coming.	Cavan Biggio: he holds the most promise in terms of buoying the offense. The other key may be health, as 4 of HD's players are on the IL.
GTV	Zack Greinke: after getting obliterated in his first start, he's been a QS machine (15) for a staff that needed it. Just a 1.11 BB/9 helps. Honorable mention: Gallo and his .275 BA.	Blake Snell: he's not a total loss, but the good luck he had last year (.241 BABIP) has corrected this year (.351).	Trea Turner: he's finally healthy, rounding out a very impressive offense that can win all 6 categories.
Rip City	The bullpen: Hader, Pressly, Rogers, & Co. have smoothed over a multitude of sins from the rest of my inconsistent roster.	Jose Ramirez: Articles across the web by J-Ram apologists are a dime a dozen, but at this point I just hope he continues contributing in two categories (BB, SB).	Eloy Jimenez: the power is finally turning on, and if he starts hitting for average like he did in the minors, this offense starts to look dangerous.
Nuck-in' Futz	Josh Bell: he's already eclipsed his career high for HR and has 84 RBI! His other 1B, Santana, has also been a beast.	All of his players are performing at or above how I thought they would perform. I'm gonna cheat and go with Dellin Betances for being on IL.	Victor Robles: he's having a very good year, but imagine the OBP rises and allows him to steal more bases. This team would achieve complete balance.
St. Hu-bert	Cody Bellinger: he's the #2 ranked NoJR performer, and he's officially achieved super-star status. Honorable mention: Lucas Giolito, who is finally a bona fide ace.	Jose Altuve: can't fault someone for injury, but the fact that he's not contributing in BA and SB as envisioned es no bueno.	Air Yordan: If MLB teams can't find a hole in his swing over the next few months, Hubie's offense looks nearly unbeatable.

Mike Soroka is a dead ringer for Joffrey Baratheon.

That's all I've got - hope you enjoyed the analysis, or at least found it to be a good waste of 5 minutes. Good luck to all down the home stretch!