With such a track record, it would be selfish for me to hoard all my fantasy football know-how. Click below for some of the best players to target in 2012.
Quality QBs
Philip Rivers - Y! Average: $11
I'm shocked by how much one down year has affected this guy's draft value. He's thrown for over 4,000 yards for 4 straight years and simply struggled with turnovers last year. Interceptions certainly involve a luck component - Eli Manning threw 25 INTs in 2010, but I looked over the footage (below) and saw a lot of balls take weird bounces off of his receivers' hands, and that led me to draft him at a pretty solid bargain of $10. Expect a similar rebound from Rivers as he gets some new tools (Robert Meachem, Eddie Royal) to go along with a presumably healthier Antonio Gates. Let's not forget that this team lost Mike Tolbert and has a chronically disappointing/injured RB in Ryan Mathews, meaning this offense will likely be pass-first in the red zone.
Dollar Bargain Bin:
- Matt Cassel - I expect numbers closer to 2010 with the return of Charles, Moeaki, health.
- Andrew Luck - You might have to pay $2 to get him, but he's one of the most highly touted prospects in years and played in a pro-style offense in college. His team will likely be playing from behind fairly often, so he should enjoy solid yardage totals - stash him and see how his TD/INT ratio turns out in the first few weeks.
Wicked WRs
Nate Washington - Y! Average: $3
If someone could explain to me how a 1,000 yard receiver last year is valued at just $3 this year, I'd greatly appreciate it. Clearly Washington's value is tied to how often Kenny Britt is NOT on the field, but it's a pretty sure thing that Britt's going to be missing some games, given he's currently on the PUP list and will likely face a suspension for a DUI arrest in which he tried to enter a military base. With Chris Johnson's continued ineffectiveness, let the good times roll for Natedogg (but not the Titans as a team).
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| Said Britt, "Don't dey know I have kids?" True story. |
- Brian Quick - None of the Rams receivers are even going for more than a dollar. Go with Danny Amendola if you want decent yardage, but go with Quick if you want a guy with WR1 potential and more TDs. Bradford's health is obviously the huge question mark here.
- Jon Baldwin - His production is obviously tied to Cassel, but he's turned a lot of heads with size and athleticism that many think can yield WR1 production. If Bowe misses any games, this guy becomes must-own.
- Austin Collie - I did a double-take when I was looking at his stats: he actually played all 16 games last year. I thought he missed most of the year with a concussion, but it was actually the year before. He should be tied to a more stable offense this year and improve upon a forgetful 2011 campaign.
Rambunctious RBs
Stevan Ridley - Y! Average: $3
To be clear, Yahoo has Ridley valued at $9 for this year, but his actual auction average is just $3. I find this disturbingly low. Based on what I've seen from him to-date, he's probably the most versatile RB the Patriots have had in years, and he averaged 5.1 ypc last year following a sensational preseason. The Patriots average 1 running TD per game (consistently 17+ TDs per year during the Brady era), and the lion's share fall with one RB. So long as Ridley remains atop the depth chart and doesn't fumble the ball, he'll be in line to pick up where Law Firm left off.
Dollar Bargain Bin:
- Kevin Smith - Odds are heavily in his favor that he'll start Week 1 in Detroit's high octane offense. Given Jahvid Best's injury history and Mikel LeShoure's 2 game suspension (and injury history), Smith may be able to hold onto the gig for longer than people think.
- Evan Royster - Rarely does the fantasy community know where Mike Shanahan's mind is at when it comes to starting RBs. However, the general consensus is that he's enamored with "Rolls Royster," who excelled in limited action last year (Exhibit A, B, C). Roy Helu is the better talent, but Shanny & Son seem to prefer Royster for his ability to run in a zone blocking scheme, and Tim Hightower should be a non-factor as he recovers from injury/mediocrity.
- Rashad Jennings - When you get down to $1 RBs, it's hard to find anyone who will be worth starting, unless there's an issue with the real-life starter. With MoJo holding out of camp and carrying 343 times last year, either obstinacy or injury may give the 5+ career ypc Jennings the opportunity to run.
Tremendous TEs
Jacob Tamme - Y! Average: $4
When Tamme took over for Dallas Clark in 2010, he averaged 6+ catches and 60+ yards per game playing with Peyton Manning. He stands to benefit from his previous experience with Peyton and have a solid role in the offense. Most importantly: if you're just looking for a TE who can consistently produce 6 points in yards with a few TDs thrown in, Tamme will keep your team in the running every week. For $4, that's a steal.
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| "I'm so happy you're here, Jacob." "... why you gotta make it weird, bro." |
- Coby Fleener - They say a tight end is a rookie QB's best friend. In this case, they actually are best friends. Given their history and rapport, Fleener should get plenty of looks this season. He might cost $2, but he's worth the extra expenditure.
- Jermaine Gresham - I expect A.J. Green to see a lot more double teams this year, and Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell are no longer in Cincy. By necessity, I see Andy Dalton giving more looks to the 6'5" Gresham, who happens to be an excellent red zone target as well. Certainly worth a $1-2 flyer.
Good luck to all in their fantasy drafts. Make sure you run a few dozen mocks to be prepared.
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