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| Indeed, Granite Staters can fly. We've been self-Harrison Bergeron-ing ourselves for years to fit in. |
Oh right, that's my job. For a glimpse into some future trends to watch for, it's the second edition of Pitchers, Belly Itchers, Batters and Broken Ladders, plus some bonus waiver pickups.
Pitchers
James Shields - Tampa Bay Rays
James, of the alleged "Big Game" persuasion, seems to have undergone a revival this year. Joining his nifty 4-1 record is a 2.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through 8 starts. Looking deeper, however, it's likely that he's in for a fall. The March/April part of the season is by far his best part of the year historically speaking, with his WHIP a full .10 below all other months. Manager Joe Maddon will tell you between sips of wine that Shields is an ace type pitcher, but I don't trust a guy with a career BAA of .267 to be an ace anymore than Capt. Kirk can trust Klingons negotiating for peace. Not after the death of his boy. Sell high while you can.
Brandon Beachy - Atlanta Braves
The BB gun won the 5th starter job in the A.T.L. after a strong spring training and hasn't looked back. The 24 year old has a 2.98 ERA on the year, including 1.89 and a WHIP of 0.63 over his last three starts, but most impressive is a K/9 rate over 9. Stud prospect Julio Teheran looms behind Beachy, but there's no reason to believe the Braves brass will pull him unless he plays himself out of the rotation. Look for him to put up similar strong numbers for the next few months before his arm tires mid-late summer.
*edit* Beachy injured an oblique, so look for Teheran or Mike Minor to step in.
Belly Itchers
Ubaldo Jimenez - Colorado Rockies
Perhaps no pitcher in fantasy has been quite as disappointing as Jimenez in the early going. After an incredible two months of sub-1 ERA to start last year, Baldy has opened this year with a 6.67 ERA and has a BB/9 of, coincidentally, 6.67. Looking over past years, you'll see that he always has a month or two where his ERA goes through the roof.
- July 2010: 6.04
- April 2009: 7.58
- April 2008: 5.90
Like Edinson Volquez, his problem is in his delivery. They both have a lot of moving parts in their mechanics, so when they're off, they're tough to iron out. When they're on, Ubaldo is perhaps the best pitcher in baseball as last year's April and May indicated. The fact he's struggled for two consecutive months is worrisome, but stick with him and resist selling low.
Mat Latos - San Diego Padres
Ubaldo's had a bad run so far, but it might not compare to this guy's misfortune. Dating back to last year: 11 starts, 10 losses (1 ND). It's difficult to figure out why Latos is doing so poorly if you look at his peripherals: K/9 over 9, BAA in the low .200's, and his fastball's velocity has been up around 97 mph. Then you take off the sabermetrics goggles and realize that he's giving up dingers (6 in 6 games) and not locating his pitches (3.8 BB/9). Once he starts locating, look out, but don't be surprised if he has a lopsided W-L record since his team's offense is collectively about as talented as Arnold J. Rimmer. Seriously, not one offensive player from San Diego is owned in fantasy.
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| Smeg, San Diego. Get well soon. |
Batters
Adrian Gonzalez - Boston Red Sox
No hitter in baseball has been hotter than Gonzo over the past couple weeks. Over those two weeks he's hit .358 with 7 homers, 12 runs, 16 RBIs. That means he's homering every other game and contributing 2 runs per game. If there was ever a buy-low window on this guy, it's been shut forever, and that window is actually a super window from Naked Gun 2.5 and it's tinted so it looks cool and you know you can never get him. Dammit.
Ben Zobrist - Tampa Bay Rays
The Zorilla is back and livin' large. After an ugly 2010 when he batted a Medusan .238 with a .699 OPS, Zobrist is back and slugging the ball with a BA back up at .293 and 8 dingers. With multi-cat eligibility, he's a great player to have on any team so that you can shift him around and play the best match-ups available on any given day. Will his success continue? Given a similar level of production in 2009 and the way the Rays are hitting this year, I wouldn't bet against him.
Broken Ladders
Hanley Ramirez - Florida Marlins
Hanley was always touted as a prospect with no ceiling, and in general he has validated those claims over his career. He's actually been a model of consistency over his career (with regard to BA if not defense). He's only had a couple dud months: June 2006 (.190, his rookie year) and July 2010 (.242). Other than that he's always batted .260 or above, often over .300 given his career .309 BA. So why be concerned about him now? Attitude. Taking a page from another Ramirez's playbook last year, Hanley was "dogging it" and benched by manager Fredi Gonzalez. His response was to whine to the media, hardly sparing any language. The players sided with Fredi, and Hanley's reputation as a clubhouse cancer has been cemented ever since. It's insane to think that he won't heat up at some point and tear the cover off the ball, but it's a huge risk to depend on him as the focal point of your team's success, in fantasy or reality, given his enormous talent and contrasting lackadaisical approach to the game.
Dustin Pedroia - Boston Red Sox
Pedey is typically known for starting off the year somewhat sluggishly before doing his Moonraker thing at Fenway, but this year started off somewhat differently. He started off the year slugging like a former MVP, with an OPS over .900 as late as April 21. Since then his average has eroded to .239. More discouraging, his K rate is much higher than past years. In 2009, his last full year, he struck out about once every 14 ABs. This year is nearly tripled: once every 5 ABs. While he's prone to have extended hot streaks for weeks at a time, I'm not as confident this year that he'll be a lock for a .300 BA unless he adjusts his swing and gets his contact rate back up. Then he'll be back in business.
OF - Austin Jackson - Detroit Tigers
A-Jax hasn't been hitting as well so far this year, but he's starting to heat up. Batting .190 just a week ago, he's raised his average up to .229, including 2 homers and a pair of steals. Look for his surge to continue as he'll face off against teams such as Kansas City, Toronto, and Pittsburgh next week, all teams with mediocre right-handers on their staffs (and if he's lucky, John Lackey of the Sox on Wednesday or Thursday).
IF - Darwin Barney - Chicago Cubs
Though his name is goofy to me, I noticed his eligibility at both middle infield positions and .300+ BA and my meager amusement turned to serious fantasy analysis. He won NL Rookie of the Month for April and continues to hit, already compiling 22 runs and 43 hits out of the gate. Rarely do you see a 2B/SS with a .300+ BA available in mid-May. One warning sign is that he doesn't walk a whole lot (4 walks total?!) so if pitchers go off the plate it could hurt him, but for now it doesn't hurt to stash him. If I could make myself drop Latos, I'd get him myself.
SP - Joel Pineiro - Los Angeles Angels
Joel's been around the league a while, and to be honest, no one in the fantasy community really likes him, and for good reason. Some years he's good (6 years with an ERA below 4), some years he's awful (4 years with an ERA above 5, including one annoying stint with the Red Sox), plus his K/9 tends to be laughable. However, this looks to be his third good year in a row, and he's got a great schedule ahead of him: Oakland, Seattle, Atlanta, Oakland, Minnesota, Kansas City. Unless Daric Barton walks him to death, look for Pineiro to rack up 2-3 wins over the next couple weeks along with solid ERA and WHIP numbers.
RP - Taylor Buchholz - New York Mets
Though inferior to cousin Clay, Taylor has found a nice niche for his abilities as a middle reliever over the past few years. Failing as a starter in Houston, he became a reliever in Colorado, and he's rebounded from an injury last year to post very solid numbers this year: 1.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and a K/9 solidly over 9. He'll be relied upon to garner holds as the best middle reliever the Mets have, the only question is whether or not the Mets starting staff is capable of leaving a game with the lead. We're counting on you, R.A. Dickey!
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