Starting with baseball, it's time for fantasy owners to account for their draft day profits and losses. There's no off-shore tax shelter in Dominica that can save you from disclosing the horrendous mismanagement of your team! Now it's time to bring in the Bobs for some "human resource realignment," aka Danger's gonna take a hacksaw to your team.
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| What do you say... ya DO here? |
Mashers
Matt Kemp
Finally unencumbered by the micro-managing style and eerie countenance of Joe Torre, Kemp is thriving under new coach Don Mattingly the Mustache-less. Finally allowed to spread his wings, Kemp has responded in fitting style with 8 steals, 2 homers, and a batting average north of .400 to start the season. After last year's .249 clip, look for Kemp to rebound and flirt with the .300 mark he's achieved in years past - and plenty of power and swiped bags.
Troy Tulowitzki
Tulo is entering his own stratosphere at shortstop with his production over the last couple years, and it has continued this April. 12 games into the season, he already has 7 homers, 14 RBIs, and his walk rate is way up (1 BB/game), placing his OPS at 1.400. He's turning out to be worth every penny of the $51 I bought him for at auction, and I can only assume that this level of production will continue for the remainder of 2011!
Belly-scratchers
Carl Crawford
One of the biggest signings of the offseason, Crawdaddy was meant to augment an already strong Red Sox lineup with speed and batting average. Instead, he's reached base only 9 times in 11 games while stifling any of the meager attempts the Sox have made to score runs. For those watching him play, it seems that he's really pressing and trying to clobber the ball to make a good impression, but look for him to settle in and be a catalyst at the top of the order. He won't bat .152 forever: buy low.
Pedro Alvarez
Trendy fantasy owners thought they were getting a real steal with Alvarez due to his power production in his rookie year, but closer inspection should create some skepticism. He averaged 1.25 K/game last year, which when extrapolated over 162 games gives you 203 Ks per year. That's entering Mark Reynolds territory, a desolate hellscape in which only he resides (no other player has struck out 200 times in a year). With a contact rate that poor, the best you can hope for is a batting average around .250, and you better hope he hits 30+ homers to compensate. Trade while he's still trendy.
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| Reynolds had a choice between Baltimore and the hellscape, but he just felt the hellscape offered a safer community. |
Pitchers
Gio Gonzalez
I knew this guys was going to be good, but his dominance out of the gate has been remarkable. He's sporting a 0.47 ERA after 3 starts, leading the A's young staff, which could grow to be the best staff in the AL this year. There are some warning signs though: his BB/9 is approaching 6, meaning if hits start dropping, his ERA could go up quickly. Still a great find for those who drafted him though.
Jered Weaver
People need to start talking about this guy as a top 5 fantasy starter. The ERA is there, the K/9 is strong (9.3 last year) and getting stronger (11.8 so far in 2011), and there's been no durability issues the past few years. He throws a cutter that reminds me of Mariano Rivera's, and last time I checked, NO ONE has figured it out yet. A 0.87 ERA for the year is unsustainable, but don't act surprised when the year wraps up and it's below 3 with 225+ Ks at a minimum. Buy if you can.
Belly-itchers
Felix Hernandez
If anyone is shopping this guy: buy, and buy hard. After some shaky starts to open the year, some in the fantasy community are wondering if King Felix is suffering from arm fatigue. He's thrown the most innings out of all pitchers in the bigs over the last two years, and suddenly he looks hittable. Ignore the haters. Felix is still only 25, so unless you hear something injury-related, expect his .277 BAA to drop back down to .220. The wins probably won't be there, but the other stats will be tremendous.
Francisco Liriano
Like ingested plexiglass, Liriano is causing a painful itch in owners' bellies. His ERA after 3 starts is a large and not in charge 9.42. He's a curious guy to analyze: if you look at his split stats, you clearly see a trend toward better performance as the year progresses into warmer months, peaking in July. Then, it regresses heading into the cooler air of September. If you want to get a guy that's almost guaranteed for 9+ K/9 and solid production in the summer months, Liriano's your man. Part of me wonders about his injury history, but you can't need Tommy John surgery twice, right?!
Waiver Wire Wonders
SP: Michael Pineda - How this guy is only 45% owned is baffling to me. Consider him a viable alternative to Stephen Strasburg as far as prospects go. There may be some growing pains along the way, but his stuff has got me humming "Electric Avenue."
SP: Chris Young - This lanky bastard has been plagued by injuries over the years, but when he pitches, he's good. So far his surgically repaired arm has performed very well, making me wonder if the plot of Rookie of the Year is plausible. Yeah, hi HR, I'm going to use a sick day for some routine surgery, k? Thanks.
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| Wasn't this kid in American Pie, too? What a career... |
1B: Brandon Belt - Everyone thinks that this guy is getting sent to the minors, but I'm not convinced. For one, Bochy is testing him out in the outfield. Sure, he started off slow, but his underlying stats look good: he's not striking out, and he's taking walks. At some point, the BABIP will climb, and a true fantasy expert looks for those opportunities and cashes in. It's a buy low, sell high business, and Belt is low for the right reasons: get him.
Raburn/Freese/Zimmermann - If you followed my advice in my last post, these guys are paying off for you (or will soon with Raburn). If not, then you need to start blindly taking my advice more. Oh well, lesson learned.
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