Sunday, April 3, 2016

2016 NoJR Draft Recap - Going for Gold

Last Thursday, 11 men and 1 very price-conscious A.I. went mining for draft day values. So much hope, so much potential, so much... hey I thought draft day gold would be different than this...


While it was tough to find under the radar values in this draft, there were still quite a few nifty picks, and perhaps some overzealous spending. As is tradition, I've selected some of the top "Gold Grabs" and "Pyrite Picks" for each team.




Gold GrabsPyrite Picks
Hughes Drubbers
James Shield ($6) - 200+ Ks for $6 is a steal, and might get traded to a contender.
Brett Lawrie ($1) - If he puts it all together this year, I know a lot of former owners who will be pissed.
A.J. Pollock ($36) - Unbelievably rotten luck that this guy gets a major injury the day after the draft; there will be value in free agency.
VATECH NATSSantiago Casilla ($1) - Closers were not cheap this year, but somehow this guy went for a buck.
Khris Davis ($1) - Staying in the bay area, Davis had 27 dingers in just two-thirds of a season; even playing at Oakland, worth a flier for sure.
Carlos Correa ($49) - Will likely be a top player for years to come, but funny that two-thirds of a season made him more valuable than Miguel Cabrera ($43).
St. Louis BrownsMichael Conforto ($6) - Saw him take a Scherzer fastball to the opposite field for a homer as a rookie: nuff said.
Ketel Marte ($2) - With nice wheels and OBP, needs to become leadoff hitter and get the nickname "Ketel One."
Evan Longoria ($18) - Just seems like a perpetual fantasy disappointment; I picked him up off of free agency by the end of last year.
Sippin on Gin AndrusIan Desmond ($10) - Should be highly motivated with his 1-year contract; still has SS eligibility.
Joey Gallo ($2) - Reminds me of a former Ranger, Chris Davis, who went for $29 this year.
Mark Melancon ($12) - Has declining velocity and K-rate; will never forgive him for his futility while playing on the Red Sox.
Nuckin' FutzStephen Piscotty ($8) - Every time I check a box score I see this guy doing something productive.
Sean Doolittle ($5) - More like Doomuch if he regains 2014 form (elite K-rate and WHIP).
Stephen Strasburg ($34) - It's not a NoJR draft unless the Futz drafts Stras for big money; however, I do think he'll have a good year.
Saratoga OldtimersKen Giles ($9) - Looks like the next great top-tier closer, but not priced as such.
Jonathan Papelbon ($7) - His underwhelming start with the Nats and skirmish with Bryce must have hurt his value.
His auto-draft was so stingy that I don't really see any over-priced picks... maybe Jacoby Ellsbury for being injury-prone and not winning me any tacos lately.
AJ's AcesBrad Miller ($1) - I've been fooled by B-Mill before, but position eligibility and spring production are tantalizing.
Shawn Kelley ($1) - Great K-rate and setup role for a Nats team that should win a bunch of games.
Jordan Zimmerman ($11) - Heading to the AL with ERA, WHIP, and K-rate trending in the wrong direction.
CobraKaiAlex Rodriguez ($2) - Unless you're Madonna, he's not the sexiest pick for your team, but 2 bucks for a clean-up hitter is a good value.
Joaquin Benoit ($1) - I had this guys 2 years in a row; rock solid reliable in an M's bullpen that is anything but.
Billy Hamilton ($7) - Assuming he continues the way he's going, he'll win you 1 category and kill you on most others; there are worse things than $7 for a #9 hitter though.
Grand Theft VottoJustin Verlander ($5) - Call me crazy, but his post ASB stats (2.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 95 K) make me think he's close to what he once was.
Brandon Crawford ($5) - Was the #5 ranked SS in the game last year, but all he gets is the Rodney Dangerfield treatment.
Joe Smith ($9) - A nit-picky selection since there was a lot of good value picks; HLDs were great last year, but didn't have that great of a K-rate, ERA or WHIP.
Rip City ReaversLance McCullers ($8) - Discounted for missing April; 22 year old has elite K-rate, BAA, and ridiculous curveball.
Keone Kela ($1) - Another 22 year old phenom; high K-rate and groundball % make him a dangerous setup man.
Miguel Sano ($28) - Hits the ball very hard, but struck out 35.5% of the time, making him an expensive "Three True Outcomes" acquisition.
Gmonie16Justin Turner ($1) - Must've been a ginger discount: owns a 148 wRC+ over the past 2 years (MLB's 13th best.
Kenta Maeda ($3) - Doubling down on Dodgers; read reports that he has elite command of all 4 of his pitches.
Francisco Lindor ($22) - He's an amazing SS, but the HR number was flukey last year. I expect a .280 BA with 10 HR and 20 SB (still pretty good).
Nickel BlitzHanley Ramirez ($9) - When healthy, he hits; early glimpses of 1B play look surprisingly non-comical.
David Peralta ($7) - Came out of nowhere to post a 138 wRC+; given career arc, might be improving still.
Albert Pujols ($17) - Hadn't hit 40 homers since 2010 and his feet are ticking time bombs, but his saving grace might be a BABIP correction (.217 last year).


Too early power rankings:

The season just started today, but a lack of "data" and "facts" aren't going to stop me from opining on who the overall winners and losers were on draft day.
  1. AJ's Aces
  2. Gmonie16
  3. Saratoga Oldtimers
  4. Nickel Blitz
  5. CobraKai
  6. Sippin on Gin Andrus
  7. Grand Theft Votto
  8. Nuckin' Futz
  9. Hughes Drubbers
  10. St. Louis Browns
  11. VATECH NATS
  12. Rip City Reavers

I thought it was the best draft in league history based on activity level and having a lot of competitive bidding. It was very difficult to procure "sleepers" at good value because so many folks were working off of their own values and weren't slaves to Yahoo's projections. Very cool.

Of course, these power rankings are completely pointless because fantasy baseball is a marathon. Injuries, trades, and surprise breakout performers will shape the season in unexpected ways. Looking forward to competing with you all!


1 comment:

  1. Yeah the Strasburg pick was higher than he should have gone; if he doesn't put it all together in a contract year he might never. But it wouldn't be late March if I didn't have unrealistically high expectations for him! Bummer about Pollock, those early-season injuries can change the trajectory of a whole team.

    - The Fightin' Futz

    ReplyDelete