Monday, March 30, 2015

Fast Reacts from Draft Day - 2015 NoJR: Another Year Older, Another Year (None the) Wiser

The Nephews of Jody Reed assembled Sunday night for its annual draft day extravaganza, and it was a fun show! For starters, the league finally has a keeper system in place, meaning that...
  1. Every team can count on at least a few draft picks not being terrible buys, and...
  2. The draft only took 3 hours instead of 3 and a half
The keeper system certainly introduced a new dynamic to draft day as I witnessed a number of players going well above projected value. It seems that the extra cash emboldened many GMs to target very specific players for their roster, and they were willing to pay extra and show those guys the money. 

Change Rod Tidwell to Matt Harvey and you get the gist of our draft.
However, perhaps our targets were a bit modest, given that many teams finished the draft with a surplus of unspent cash.

Ultimately, I hope every GM is excited with the team they've got, and let's not forget that free agency is a gold mine as new stars emerge. But until those players present themselves, here's TDZ's picks for the top picks and possible bust candidates for each squad.


Note: the selections below will not include keepers since those would be easy pickings as gold grabs.


Gold GrabsPyrite Picks
Hughes Drubbers
Hanley Ramirez ($25) - Will bat cleanup in strong lineup; move to OF should help hitting, which makes SS eligibility awesome.
Darren O'Day ($1) - Rock solid HLD guy for a buck, count me in. 
Paul Goldschmidt ($45) - Has been quiet this spring; needs a season like 2013 to return value, which is a lofty expectation given lengthy absence.
Baketown Chill
Killers
Chris Davis ($9) - I heard he's learning to bunt against the shift, and Adderall is a beautiful thing.
Jered Weaver ($1) - Reliable and far from washed up, I expect a decent return here.
Matt Harvey ($36) - I'm excited he's back, but not that excited. He needs to be an ace for the entire year to return value.
LightningChris Carter ($4) - Could easily lead league in homers a la Chris Davis in 2013; K-rate actually improved a lot last year (but still bad).
Alex Rodriguez ($1) - Why not take a flyer on a guy with 600+ homers and something to prove?
Robinson Cano ($33) - 6th best 2B in fantasy last year, but still has a top 2B's price.
Run All NightGregory Polanco ($7) - Rough stint in bigs last year pushed his price down; he will improve this go-round.
Neil Ramirez ($1) - Solid HLD guy for a team that will win games in the futures; could supplant Rondon at some point.
Jose Fernandez ($15) - Do I believe he will bust? No. Did he go for more than what RAN hoped to pay for him? Yes. Intrigued to see how he performs in 1st year after TJ surgery.
Nuckin' FutzJason Heyward ($12) - Post-hype at this point, but Cards maximize their personnel; expect good BB, R, SB.
Fernando Rodney ($5) - Solid Mariners team = saves galore.
Hunter Pence ($25) - Will likely miss first 3 weeks of the season assuming a smooth recovery, and Giants lineup looks very weak.
Saratoga OldtimersJosh Harrison ($7) - Toga brings back a toolsy player that helped him to a championship; has curious lack of buzz.
Bartolo Colon - ($1) When will this guy stop being fantasy relevant? Never! He's 41, which is like 53 in fat guy years - incredible.
Brad Penny ($1) - Not sure if this was an auto-draft situation, but I, coincidentally, wouldn't drop one red cent for this guy. Also concerned about Robertson ($15) and his forearm.
Lavallee TeamCharlie Blackmon ($10) - Dropped a Hamilton for a possible 20-20 man.
Tony Watson ($2) - Second to Clippard in holds last year, pitches a lot.
I have a slight gripe with Gerrit Cole at $30 based on what I saw statistically last year; needs to have a significant leap forward to return value.
The HighlanderCorey Dickerson ($21) - Inexpensive price for a guy who I believe will be a top-15 outfielder again this year.
Drew Smyly ($4) - Had a 1.70 ERA in TB last season; shoulder rehab progressing.
Cliff Lee ($10) - Fully aware that this was an auto-draft situation, but elbow problems + 60-day DL stint makes this a bust.
Lloyd's ChristmasA.J. Pollock ($1) - Mix of pop and speed should keep this guy fantasy relevant; thin air in the desert.
Matt Wieters ($2) - Consistent 20+ homer hitter prior to injury, solid backup to Mesoraco (concussion).
Pablo Sandoval ($15) - Looked pretty fat heading into camp. Do I really think he's going to bust? As a Sox fan, I say... no.
Rip City ReaversTaijuan Walker ($4) - Possible future ace went for peanuts; needs to have strong April to solidify spot.
Steven Souza ($4) - Outside shot at a 20-20 year.
George Springer ($29) - Paid a steep price for a guy with a high K-rate, could be in line for a sophomore swoon.
Gmonie16Lucas Duda ($4) - Hit 30 HRs last year, and it didn't feel flukey; fences creeping in.
Michael Wacha ($6) - The way players are priced in fantasy, you'd think this guy is a flash-in-the-pan. He's actually 23 years old with great stuff.
Jonathan Broxton ($10) - I didn't get the intrigue with bidding on Brox; declining K/9 and not on same level as other $10+ relievers.
Nickel BlitzLeonys Martin ($5) - Batting lead-off with speed; could be Michael Brantley-lite with more SBs.
Yu Darvish ($2) - Sneaky buy with keeper settings in play; would join Kluber and Ross for a combined $4 in cost.
Prince Fielder ($20) - If he returns to form, he'll be a bargain, but neck fusion surgery makes me uneasy. I guess it worked for Peyton Manning.


Early, early power rankings:
  1. Hughes Drubbers
  2. Lavallee Team
  3. TheHighlander
  4. Run All Night
  5. Nuckin' Futz
  6. Nickel Blitz
  7. Gmonie16
  8. Saratoga Oldtimers
  9. Lightning
  10. BaketownChillKillers
  11. Lloyd's Christmas
  12. Rip City Reavers
No team's proven a darn thing yet, so we'll see how the season begins to play out. Hope everyone enjoyed the draft, and good luck on the waiver wires!


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