Friday, December 27, 2013

Puttin' on the Blitz - The 2013 UMassBallers Season Revue



We're 16 weeks into the 2013 NFL season, which can mean only one thing: another UMassBallers season is in the books. For 11 players, it's a time to reflect on the mishaps and misfortunate of a fantasy season gone awry, while 1 UMass alum gets to bask in virtual football glory. Now who's that GM?

Nick Norman. His name's Nick Norman!!
Nickel Blitz claims a well-earned championship this year, leading the league in points scored, and ending a two-year reign of flatulence by Farts are Funny. Click below for a full season synopsis, including the best bargains and busts from the draft.


The Rundown

Like last year, below is a simple calculation of drafted player points (Weeks 1-16) per dollars spent. Rather than simply dividing by the $200 budget, though, I divided by the actual dollars spent, since the remainder could be carried into the regular season.

The Others - 11.9666
HERE COMES THE BOOM - 10.309
Deals and Steals - 10.072
denis' Neat Team - 9.407 (division champion)
Chicago Ferrets - 9.1769
Nickel Blitz - 8.7354 (league champion)
Serious Cat - 8.7354
mangenius - 8.5559 (division champion)
Farts are Funny - 8.4733
Biogenesis Bangers - 8.3114 (division champion)
Brady's Bunch - 8.236
Ditka vs God - 7.88

What immediately strikes me is that the three teams with the most points per auction dollar were teams that drafted multiple QBs, and one could argue, too many QBs, given that none of them made the playoffs. Deals and Steals in particular had two high quality starting QBs (Cam Newton and Russell Wilson) to fill one starting spot.

Meanwhile, I looked into the drafts of the 4 playoff teams, and what I see for the most part is a balanced positional approach, particularly between WR and RB selections.
  • denis' Neat Team: 6 WR, 5 RB
  • Nickel Blitz: 5 WR, 5 RB
  • Biogenesis Bangers: 5 RB, 4 WR
  • mangenius: 3 RB, 8 WR
Only mangenius went heavy on one position, apparently showing a ton of faith that Matt Forte, Stevan Ridley, and his boi Chris Johnson would be reliable. After getting burned by CJ in past years, I'm impressed by his unwavering loyalty. With Forte being every bit as effective in Marc Trestman's offense as pundits had projected, the strategy worked out.


Let's also not forget the "game-changing" transactions that took place during the season:
  • September 4 - Serious Cat sends Isaac Redman to Biogenesis Bangers for Christine Michael
    • It's not a UMassBallers season unless Serious Cat makes a trade prior to the first week of games. Biogenesis went on to endure a -1.4 point performance from Redman in Week 1 and quickly gave up on the mediocre RB. Meanwhile, SC enjoyed a 3.7 point performance in Week 3.
    • Winner: Mediocrity
  • September 24 - Serious Cat sends Andre Johnson and Eddie Royal to Brady's Bunch for Giovani Bernard and Mike Wallace
    • A much more substantial deal saw a 4-player exchange as both clubs were cellar dwellers looking to fix their sorry situations.
    • Serious Cat sent Johnson, who was on an abysmal Texans team, but managed to put together a solid WR1 year, including a 40.9 point outburst in Week 9. Eddie Royal, briefly fantasy relevant at the time, returned to uselessness shortly after the trade.
    • Brady's Bunch was undoubtedly underwhelmed by Mike Wallace's here-today, gone tomorrow point production, and made a nice upgrade with Johnson. The price for the upgrade was Bernard, who had a very solid season but could have been a major breakout RB as a rookie. Instead, the Law Firm rose to the occasion and held on to his time share.
    • Winner: Draw. In terms of the main pieces of the deal (AJ versus Gio), Andre wins 140-122.2 (point totals following trade), but Wallace turned out to be a better value than Royal. After a few weeks of never knowing when to start Wallace, Serious Cat dropped Wallace anyways and it was a wash.
  • October 30 - The Others send Andrew Luck to the Chicago Ferrets for Larry Fitzgerald
    • Each team helped fill a need for the other as the Ferrets got a replacement for Michael Vick, and The Others finally got a startable skill position player instead of holding on to 3 QBs.
    • The Ferrets started Luck 6 times following the trade, and he met or exceeded his projected points twice. Meanwhile, Fitzy beat his projected total 4 out of 5 weeks for The Others.
    • Winner: The Others, in terms of getting what he bargained for, plus a bit more, however both teams came out ahead.
While trades didn't have much of an impact on the season, many used their FA dollars as major game changers. Others did not...

Most Hilariously Wasteful FA Bids:
  • Deals and Steals: Joseph Randle for $44 (beat a bid of $11 from Farts are Funny)
    • With DeMarco Murray succumbing to injury like he does every year, Randle was in line for a substantial workload. He underwhelmed, and the irony of his acquisition was not lost on a team called "Deals and Steals."
  • Chicago Ferrets: Brian Leonard for $23 (beat a bid of $10 from denis' Neat Team)
    • Can't blame a GM for bidding on what could be a new workhorse at tailback, but Leonard was worthless, earning only 3.7 points the next week and playing second fiddle to Bobby Rainey. Chicago went on to capture Rainey for $27, meaning he spent almost half his FA budget to get the Tampa Bay running game.
  • Biogenesis Bangers: Mason Crosby for $5 (exceeds a bid of $3 from mangenius)
    • I just couldn't believe that FA dollars were spent on a kicker, and that it was actually necessary to procure him over a competing bid. Crosby went on to earn 8 points the following week.
  • Nickel Blitz: Toby Gerhart for $17 (beats a bid of $0 by Chicago Ferrets)
    • Spent a substantial sum despite the fact he never played the next week, or the week after. Something tells me he's not crying into his beer about this, though.
Sometimes you don't get what you paid for.

Biggest FA Bid Steals:
  • Nickel Blitz: Julian Edelman for $45 (blows away $12 bid by Chicago Ferrets)
    • It wasn't exactly a great buy if you look at the excessive amount, but the Blitz got the most consistent receiver on the Pats, and he delivered quality point totals from Week 12 through the championship - just when he needed it.
  • mangenius: Julius Thomas for $20 (higher waiver priority than $20 bid from Brady's Bunch)
    • JMac got a TE1 who scored 12 TDs on the year for the best possible price he could have paid - awesome buy.
  • denis' Neat Team: Keenan Allen for $7 (exceeds bid of $0 from Serious Cat)
    • Getting a rock solid WR2 in the middle of the year for just a few FA dollars is pretty neat.
  • Nickel Blitz: Nick Foles for $6 (beats bid of $3 by mangenius)
    • From Week 9 on, Foles was the best QB in the fantasy game. It didn't matter one bit who his opponent was, he just scored all day long in Chip Kelly's offense. His lowest point output during this span was 18.46.

All-Bargain Team

Not every team had to rely on free agency to build their teams. Check out these draft day steals.

QBAndy Dalton - Serious Cat - $1
The #6 best QB in the fantasy game was none other than the biggest ginger in the NFL (suck it, Mike Glennon). Unfortunately for Serious Cat, he dropped him relatively early in the year and Dalton became a backup on Brady's Bunch.
Honorable mentionsAndrew Luck - The Others - $7; Ben Roethlisberger - Ditka vs God - $1

WR: Josh Gordon - denis' Neat Team - $2
We saw a glimpse of his ability the year before, but I don't think anyone was prepared for this: a per game scoring clip that exceeded Calvin Johnson. Let that sink in. I used to think Megatron was in an untouchable tier at WR, but Gordon's combination of size, hands, and speed (holy crap, that turbo button after the catch) has him right at the same level... but technically a bit higher, since he missed 2 games to begin the year, AND he plays for the Browns. Next year we'll have to see if the comparison is truly warranted.
Honorable mentions: Alshon Jeffery - Nickel Blitz - $3; DeSean Jackson - Serious Cat - $8

Those defensive backs look like they're in slow motion.
RBKnowshon Moreno - Nickel Blitz - $2
If you want to point to one key move that pushed Nickel Blitz to the championship, it's the fact that he got the #7 fantasy player in the game (and #4 RB overall) for peanuts. He gained 1,522 yards from scrimmage and scored 12 TDs in the most potent offensive attack in the league. His value should skyrocket in mock drafts next year.
Honorable mentions: Zac Stacy - Deals and Steals - $1; Fred Jackson - Ditka vs God - $1

TE: Jordan Cameron - Serious Cat - $1
Cameron delivered TE1-esque returns for substantial portions of the season, although QB play in Cleveland was largely uneven over the course of the year. I'd love to see what he can do with a full season of the incredible Brian Hoyer.
Honorable mentionsVernon Davis - Brady's Bunch - $11; Martellus Bennett - denis' Neat Team - $1



All-Bust Team

Perhaps my favorite part of these revues is the opportunity to channel my inner Nelson Muntz on the awful misfortune to befall many owners who stumbled out of the blocks due to terrible auction buys. Of course, no one is immune, so this will go a lot smoother if everyone just sits back and accepts their Razzies with what little dignity they have left. 

QBTom Brady - Brady's Bunch - $45
You can certainly make a case for Rodgers here since he has the lowest point-to-draft dollar ratio of all drafted QBs, but he has the built in excuse of injury as the cause for his low output. Brady, on the other hand, has been healthy, but has fallen off considerably with Gronk sidelined most of the year and few weapons around him. His final ranking is the #12 QB in the fantasy game, behind Alex Smith. In a league filled with Pats fans, it was just a matter of time before Brady had a down year and showed up on this list.
Honorable mentions: Aaron Rodgers - Ditka vs God - $45; Robert Griffin III - HERE COMES THE BOOM - $26

WRRandall Cobb - denis' Neat Team - $33
I really can't make fun of these WRs since they all just dealt with injuries and weren't failures for any other reason. Cobb ends the year with the lowest point-to-draft dollar ratio. Other poor values on the year who didn't deal with injuries as much would include our boi Victor Cruz ($34, Biogenesis Bangers) and Danny Amendola ($18, Serious Cat). Also, what happened to Hakeem Nicks ($16, Biogenesis Bangers)? 14 games played, 846 yards, zero TDs, and that's heading into a free agent offseason. Yikes.
Honorable mentionsJulio Jones - Biogenesis Bangers - $38; Roddy White - Deals and Steals - $36

RBDavid Wilson - Serious Cat - $40
The RB position always produces the most busts, and this year is no exception. I had the distinct displeasure of paying for the worst point/$ selection of the entire draft. Wilson was primed for a major role in the Giants offense, offering a dynamic run threat with above average pass catching ability - or so I thought. He fumbled early and often in Week 1, probably cried again, and then was rarely used until he ruined his neck. My favorite part of the season was dropping him and rolling with Zac Stacy for the rest of the year.
Honorable mentionsDoug Martin - Nickel Blitz - $63; Arian Foster - Farts are Funny - $55; C.J. Spiller - Serious Cat - $54; and many more

"I'm struggling to handle adversity over here, bawww."
TEZach Sudfeld - Biogenesis Bangers - $5
Like I alluded to before, this league loves Tom Brady, so the halo effect he offers to his supporting cast is massive. It's so massive that a completely unproven, undrafted TE with an extensive injury history and lacking a clearly defined role in the offense will not only get picked up in our league, but be the fourth player off the board, and go for multiple dollars. Sudsy rolled to 56 yards on the year and now infrequently catches passes from Geno Smith.
Honorable mentionsOwen Daniels - Ditka vs God - $5; Rob Gronkowski - Nickel Blitz - $16


All-Free Agent Team

No fantasy season is complete without some great free agent pick-ups over the course of the year.

QB - Nick FolesPhilip Rivers had a great return to form after a couple years of borderline fantasy relevance, and he finished as the #7 fantasy QB, with the #5 QB rating and #1 completion percentage. Norv Turner's departure appears to be just what the doctor ordered.

BUT, Foles is the real free agent QB story this year. Only Peyton Manning has been more sensational this season as Foles has produced an average fantasy score of 26.35 over his last seven games. His TD:INT ratio is an absurd 25:2. I'm intrigued to see how his auction value looks next year. 

One of his 7 TDs against the Raiders to D-Jax.
WR - Keenan Allen - Another major part of Rivers' resurgence can be tied to the emergence of rookie Allen, who finished the fantasy year with 957 yards and 8 TDs. There's little reason to believe he won't grow from here.

RB - Rashad Jennings - Serving as the backup for the artist formerly known as Run DMC, Jennings was able to capitalize on McFadden's usual mid-year injury and ran with the lead tailback role in Oakland. From Week 8 on, he missed just one game to injury and produced an average fantasy line of 16.2 points, catapulting Serious Cat to the consolation playoff rounds.

TE - Julius Thomas - After an outburst in Week 1, mangenius used his waiver budget to snag him, and the returns were substantial TE1 totals as he played within the highest yield passing game in the NFL. End-of-year tallies: 752 yards, but 12 TDs.

W/T - Julian Edelman - The former Kent State QB turned into the new Wes Welker (not Danny Amendola), and already has 991 yards and 6 TDs. He needs just 4 more catches and 9 yards to officially produce a Welker-rific 100-1000 line.

Their chemistry this year has been undeniable.
W/R - Riley Cooper - The one-time racist emerged as a reliable 2nd option in the Eagles offense behind DeSean Jackson, and really came into his own once Nick Foles took over the starting gig. 796 yards and 8 TDs, plus a couple nifty 2-pointers.

W/R - Marvin Jones - The fact that I'm scraping the bottom of the barrel and choosing the flukish Jones for the last flex position goes to show that we did a pretty good job drafting this year and plucking most of the value early on. Starvin' Marvin had a meager 651 yards, but 9 TDs (including 4 in one game).

K - Adam Vinatieri - The championship-winning vet is still fantasy relevant, finishing #5 among all kickers and converting the most kicks from 40+ (19).

DEF - Carolina - After an abysmal campaign last year, Carolina looks like a legitimate playoff contender, and that's due in large part to a strong defense. Led by Luke Kuechly, the Panthers D is 2nd in points allowed and 2nd in sacks while compiling 29 turnovers.


That's it - another year in the books for the UMassBallers! Congrats to Nickel Blitz on the win - time to make it rain up in your local burrito parlor!

Behold the most elite GIF editing of all time.
Thanks to everyone for playing and making the league so much fun, particularly Spaldawg for all the organization, emails, and money collecting. Like I say every year: I look forward to losing more money next season.

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