Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Euro a Go-Go

It's here, Euro 2012. The six months are up. Did you work yourself into a frenzy? You slacker. Well, there's plenty to be excited about as this tournament kicks off on Friday. The big question is, who's going to win it all?

Human mascots - so unimaginative. I'd have gone with 'Splotchy the Birth Mark' in honor of Mikhail Gorbachev.
Unlike the Gold Cup, there's less of a talent gap between these teams, so selecting the winners and losers is a taller task. Nevertheless, TDZ always has the cajones to make the bold predictions his readers need to hear - then can't believe they just heard. Click below to see the galling selections.


Group A - Poland, Greece, Russia, Czech Republic


Russia was a team on the rise in 2008, but after missing out on the World Cup in 2010, there's high demand among the players and fans to finally break through the glass ceiling and put together a special campaign. As the most talented side in a talent-light group, expect them to indeed advance.

It's difficult to pinpoint the other team that will emerge from this group, but I'm betting on the Czech Republic. The team received a boost with "Little Mozart" Tomas Rosicky returning to game fitness. Teams with maestros like him tend to make waves in tournaments when healthy, such as Uruguay's World Cup run on the back of Diego Forlan.

Look for the Czechs to beat out the higher ranked Greeks, who will of course play the villain (boring style of play, causing financial crisis). Meanwhile expect Poland to get a moral victory by playing teams tight and perhaps managing a win and a draw or two.

Czech goalie Petr Cech is also flying high with great performances in the Champions League for tourney winner Chelsea.

Group B - Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Portugal

We go from the least imposing group to the most. The first team I have to choose is Germany. They play like a well-oiled BMW, supported by their perfect record in qualifying. They might drop a game in this group, but I doubt they falter often enough to stop from advancing.

As for the other teams, it's a tough call. I could see Denmark, now #9 in the FIFA rankings, creating some upsets here, and they actually outperformed Portugal in their qualifying group. Then again, Portugal has one of the best players in the world with CR7, but I've never considered him to be the kind of player that imposes his will on the biggest stages.

That leaves me with the Netherlands. The Oranje can score as well as any team in the tournament, but their defense will be a liability. I see them cruising past Portugal and struggling with but ultimately surpassing Denmark as the other representative in the next round. Don't be surprised if the Danes ultimately prove me wrong.

Klose doesn't know how to not show up in international tournaments.

Group C - Spain, Italy, Ireland, Croatia

Also perfect in qualifying, I'd be silly not to pick Spain to advance. I will say that I was shocked to see them beat a disciplined China side only 1-0 in a recent friendly. That will either serve as a wake-up call for the team, or a foreboding sign that this team is quite vincible when matched against athletic, defensive-minded teams (Switzerland in 2010 being another example).

Speaking of which, Italy is my other choice for this group. They're consistently strong defensively, and assuming Mario Balotelli doesn't destroy the team from the inside, expect them to outlast Croatia for the other spot in the next round. Croatia just seems too uneven with their recent results to hang with the big boys, despite being ranked above Italy. Ireland has drawn against the likes of Estonia and Hungary, and will make like an aspiring screenplay writer in L.A. and live in the basement of Group C, listening to U2 while the grown-ups upstairs do work.

No team has repeated at the Euros. Will Spain be the first?

Group D - Ukraine, Sweden, France, England

This is the group that's a real wild card for me. Any of these teams could make me look foolish, and probably will. The way I see it, England and France are the two top teams in the group, but at least one of them will falter.

England is the top ranked team in the group, but I'm not buying them. Their recent friendlies have been against some pretty weak competition, and their qualifying group was not imposing at all. I'm going to throw my weight behind Karim Benzema and France, who is looking to rebound in a big way after their World Cup 2010 embarrassment.

Meanwhile, I'm selecting Sweden to play some opportunistic ball and advance. They were strong in qualifying, and of course Zlatan will cause headaches for opposing defenses. Like Russia, they missed the World Cup and will be on a warpath. Ukraine will certainly cause an upset or two playing at home, but their efforts will be about as futile as biological resistance to the Borg.

Their hive mind is perfect for soccer. Their mobility is not.

Third Place Match - Russia vs. France

Like I said, I think Russia is in a good position to have a strong run this year. The geography favors them, they've got more talent than they've had in years, and they have the added impetus of making up for lost time. For that reason, I have them beating France in what I foresee to be a relatively high-scoring game (3-2 or 4-3 range).

How about a secret backdoor deal: France lets them win, Russia stops weapon sales to Syria. Oh man, this blog just got political!

Finals - Spain vs. Germany

I said it 6 months ago and I'll say it again, I think these teams are the best bets to reach the finals. Not exactly a surprising match-up, but I think it will make for entertaining soccer.

I will be rooting for Spain. I like their zesty, possession dominating, nifty style of play. However, I'm predicting that Germany will emerge victorious. The Germans are a smart enough team tactically to make the adjustments necessary to avoid a knockout like they had in 2010. Plus, Spain tends to win by such narrow margins, even against teams that I would expect them to blowout. To paraphrase Harvey Dent, good teams tend to make their own luck, but I see it running out against the disciplined Deutsch.

"TDZ is so right!" - "No way, we're gonna win!" - "Bahhhhh."
Enjoy the games!

2 comments:

  1. Danger post, borg reference, DVR . . . yup, I'm ready for this.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Attention readers: I mistakenly thought that the group phase was 6 games rather than just 3. Buckle in for a wilder ride than (I) expected!

    ReplyDelete